Julian Baas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julian Baas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.31x the positional average in the league (1297 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 12th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €235k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1297 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1270
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €391k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-87 Elo); relative output down 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -31% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1297 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 23 | 1297 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1270 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 13 | 851 | 28% | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1350 | 1300 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 33 | 2888 | 94% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1359 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 33 | 2459 | 80% | 3 | 5 | 0.29 | 0.33 | 1351 | 1197 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 199 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 3 | 330 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demetri Mitchell Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Anouar El Azzouzi Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Jens Jakob Thomasen Superliga · 2020 | 24 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Arnaud Djoum Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Yuji Ono Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 24 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Isaac Sackey Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.2M | €450k | fell |
| Ufuk Akyol Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €1.2M | €650k | fell |
| Silas Gnaka Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €500k | €900k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | E. Braunschweig | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €800k |
| 29 Jan 2025 | Sparta R. | E. Braunschweig | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Excelsior | Sparta R. | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Excelsior U19 | Excelsior | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Excelsior U17 | Excelsior U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.