Brayann Pereira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Brayann Pereira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 37th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €511k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1165 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1275
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €593k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; role change RB -> CB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +6% (IQR -26% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1165 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | CB | 24 | 1165 | 38% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1275 | 1362 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RB | 31 | 2101 | 69% | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 1302 | 1320 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | RB | 15 | 789 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 1349 | 1336 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | AJ Auxerre | Ligue 1 | RB | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1564 | 1314 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 157 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stelios Kitsiou Super League 1 · 2015 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Dino Arslanagic Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €1.2M | €900k | fell |
| Sherel Floranus Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Kenny Otigba Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Ivanildo Fernandes Super Lig · 2020 | 24 | €800k | €900k | flat |
| Majid Hosseini Super Lig · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Alexandros Katranis Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €1.6M | €800k | fell |
| Ivan Runje Superliga · 2015 | 25 | €700k | €800k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | AJ Auxerre | NEC Nijmegen | €400k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | NEC Nijmegen | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €700k |
| 4 Aug 2023 | AJ Auxerre | NEC Nijmegen | Free / loan | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Bourg-en-Bresse | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | AJ Auxerre | Bourg-en-Bresse | Free / loan | €600k |
| 12 Jul 2022 | RC Lens B | AJ Auxerre | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | RC Lens U19 | RC Lens B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | RC Lens U17 | RC Lens U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lens Yth. | RC Lens U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | St. Quentin Jgd | Lens Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.