Tamás Nikitscher
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tamás Nikitscher's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.46x the positional average in the league (1377 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €518k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1377 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €484k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; changed club; league level down (-137 Elo); relative output up 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -47% to -18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1377 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | DM | 27 | 1377 | 45% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 1341 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | DM | 13 | 855 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1462 | 1216 | 0.95 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elmir Nabiullin Premier Liga · 2022 | 27 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Arianit Ferati Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €600k | €650k | flat |
| Kevin Vermeulen Eredivisie · 2017 | 27 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Andriy Totovytskyi Premier Liga · 2018 | 25 | €1.2M | €650k | fell |
| Filip Rogic Premier Liga · 2020 | 27 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Artem Polyarus Premier Liga · 2017 | 25 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Ali Messaoud Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Mustafa Saymak Eredivisie · 2020 | 27 | €725k | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Real Valladolid | Rio Ave | €500k | €1.0M |
| 29 Jan 2025 | Kecskemét | Real Valladolid | €600k | €900k |
| 24 Jan 2023 | Pécsi MFC | Kecskemét | Unknown | €75k |
| 18 Jan 2022 | Makói FC | Pécsi MFC | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Sept 2021 | Debrecen II | Makói FC | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Debreceni EAC | Debrecen II | Free / loan | €50k |
| 22 Sept 2020 | Debrecen II | Debreceni EAC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Debrecen U19 | Debrecen II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 17 Feb 2017 | ZTE U17 | Debrecen U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | ZTE Youth | ZTE U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 19 Sept 2013 | Haladás Yth. | ZTE Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Feb 2013 | ZTE Youth | Haladás Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.