Marc Casadó
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Casadó's performance-implied value at EUR 15.5M-41.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.0M-25.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.1M-31.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.38x the positional average in the league (981 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 981 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1413
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.1M – €31.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts; relative output down 63% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -44% to +11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 981 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 24 | 981 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 1413 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 23 | 1616 | 47% | 1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1502 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | DM | 2 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1560 | 1723 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 221 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 632 | 0 | 2 | 1605 |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 173 | 0 | 1 | 1751 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1507 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Sturaro Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €11.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Kristjan Asllani Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €12.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Mateo Kovacic Laliga · 2018 | 24 | €30.0M | €36.0M | rose |
| André Gomes Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €15.0M | €22.5M | rose |
| Sven Bender Bundesliga · 2014 | 25 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Roberto Pereyra Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Alex Song Laliga · 2013 | 26 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Tanguy Ndombélé Serie A · 2023 | 27 | €22.0M | €7.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça U19 | Barça Atlètic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça U16 | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | CF Damm Youth | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.