Oumar Sako

30 yrs · Centre-back · Niger
FK Rostov · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€700k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€602k – €1.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€700k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.2M – €476k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€700k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€602k – €1.2M
Projected value (24 months)€700k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Oumar Sako's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 33

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage35.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €933k vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1700 (63% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.03
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
36 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1301
Opponent strength
1340
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€700k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 42% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -72% to -41%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1700 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK RostovPremier LigaCB23170063%000.000.03134013010.56
2024/25FK RostovPremier LigaCB28199474%100.050.05129813420.55
2023/24FK RostovPremier LigaCB1199037%010.090.07133413170.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Rostov631700—
2024/25Russian CupFK Rostov1171100—
2023/24Russian CupFK Rostov320900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tiago Pinto
Super Lig · 2017
29€3.0M€700kfell
Benoît Poulain
Jupiler Pro League · 2016
29€2.0M€2.5Mrose
Baiano
Liga Portugal · 2017
30€2.5M€750kfell
Melli
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
29€1.2M€600kfell
Rens van Eijden
Eredivisie · 2017
29€2.0M€400kfell
Jordi Amat
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
29€1.4M€900kfell
Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik
Super Lig · 2019
30€1.3M€750kfell
Marat Bystrov
Premier Liga · 2023
31€1.0M€500kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Arda KardzhaliRostov€350k€1.2M
30 Jun 2024RostovArda KardzhaliFree / loan€1.2M
30 Jan 2024Arda KardzhaliRostovFree / loan€600k
1 Jul 2023LASKArda Kardzhali€150k€500k
30 Jun 2023Arda KardzhaliLASKFree / loan€500k
27 Jul 2022LASKArda KardzhaliFree / loan€300k
13 Jan 2022BeroeLASK€300k€225k
1 Jul 2021Al-KharaitiyatBeroeFree / loan€50k
24 Sept 2020ASEC MimosasAl-KharaitiyatFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2018AS TandaASEC MimosasFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2017AS DenguéléAS TandaFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.