Yannick Thoelen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yannick Thoelen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 11.2th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €81k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 496 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 11 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1365
- Opponent strength
- 1348
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €80k – €203k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -76% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 496 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 7 | 496 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1348 | 1365 | 0.65 |
| 2022/23 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 6 | 459 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1315 | 1302 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 4 | 296 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1419 | 1320 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 18 | 1620 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1357 | 1365 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | KV Mechelen | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 22 | 1850 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1402 | 1354 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 6 | 495 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1388 | 1478 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 3 | 270 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1391 | 1492 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 9 | 810 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1283 | 1474 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KAA Gent | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1455 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1338 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakan Arikan Super Lig · 2017 | 35 | €250k | €50k | fell |
| Olivier Werner Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 34 | €350k | €50k | fell |
| Fabien Farnolle Super Lig · 2018 | 33 | €150k | €350k | rose |
| Filipe Mendes Liga Portugal · 2018 | 33 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Bram Castro Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 38 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Peçanha Liga Portugal · 2017 | 37 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Serdar Kulbilge Super Lig · 2014 | 34 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Stefanos Kotsolis Super League 1 · 2014 | 35 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2025 | KV Mechelen | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €200k |
| 24 Jul 2019 | KAA Gent | KV Mechelen | Unknown | €500k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | Lommel United | KAA Gent | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | KV Mechelen | Lommel United | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Lommel United | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | KV Mechelen | Lommel United | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | KFCV Geel | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | KFCV Geel U19 | KFCV Geel | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.