Maranhão
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maranhão's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (2472 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2472 (81% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €745k – €1.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -41% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 2472 | 81% | 6 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 1321 | 1194 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magaye Gueye Super Lig · 2017 | 27 | €1.4M | €400k | fell |
| Junior Kabananga Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.2M | rose |
| Peniel Mlapa Eredivisie · 2019 | 28 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Mehrdad Mohammadi Liga Portugal · 2020 | 27 | €1.6M | €2.3M | rose |
| Iñigo Córdoba Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €2.3M | €1.5M | fell |
| Michalis Manias Super League 1 · 2017 | 27 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Christos Aravidis Super League 1 · 2014 | 27 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Christian Santos Eredivisie · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Tondela | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 15 Jul 2023 | Sanjoanense | Tondela | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jan 2023 | Maia Lidador | Sanjoanense | Unknown | €50k |
| 18 Aug 2021 | Figueirense FC | Maia Lidador | Free / loan | €50k |
| 5 Feb 2021 | Ferroviária | Figueirense FC | Free / loan | €50k |
| 27 Oct 2020 | Sport Recife | Ferroviária | Free / loan | €50k |
| 3 Jan 2019 | Sport U20 | Sport Recife | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.