Pedro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.15x the positional average in the league (972 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 85.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 38.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €632k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 972 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.47
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €504k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo); role change AM -> LW.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -50% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 39: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 972 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LW | 29 | 972 | 28% | 5 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 1494 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | AM | 30 | 1088 | 32% | 10 | 1 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 1492 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | LW | 33 | 797 | 23% | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.28 | 1482 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 36 | 1895 | 55% | 4 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 1459 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 32 | 2041 | 60% | 9 | 4 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 1480 | 1561 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 27 | 1600 | 47% | 5 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.35 | 1441 | 1591 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 11 | 662 | 19% | 1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 1570 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RW | 31 | 1780 | 52% | 8 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.34 | 1539 | 1750 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 31 | 1523 | 45% | 4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 1499 | 1667 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 35 | 2151 | 63% | 9 | 10 | 0.79 | 0.42 | 1542 | 1756 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LW | 29 | 2043 | 60% | 7 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 1512 | 1625 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 35 | 1531 | 45% | 6 | 6 | 0.71 | 0.30 | 1526 | 1915 | 1.18 |
| 2013/14 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LW | 37 | 2363 | 69% | 15 | 10 | 0.95 | 0.48 | 1510 | 1809 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | RW | 28 | 2072 | 61% | 7 | 10 | 0.74 | 0.39 | 1518 | 1770 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 12 | 912 | 4 | 3 | 1545 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 89 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 8 | 187 | 2 | 0 | 1678 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 277 | 2 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 125 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 8 | 485 | 1 | 1 | 1523 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 12 | 737 | 1 | 3 | 1589 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 6 | 310 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Super Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1915 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 3 | 96 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Chelsea FC | 14 | 944 | 5 | 3 | 1534 |
| 2018/19 | Community Shield | Chelsea FC | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1831 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 7 | 388 | 1 | 2 | 1674 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 6 | 374 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Community Shield | Chelsea FC | 1 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 385 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 296 | 0 | 0 | 1731 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 4 | 258 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 139 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Super Cup | FC Barcelona | 1 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 1771 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 9 | 396 | 0 | 3 | 1604 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 6 | 275 | 5 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 8 | 570 | 3 | 3 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 7 | 304 | 1 | 0 | 1550 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klaas-Jan Huntelaar Bundesliga · 2021 | 38 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| José Luis Morales Laliga · 2024 | 37 | €1.5M | €200k | fell |
| Roberto Soldado Laliga · 2022 | 37 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Claudio Pizarro Bundesliga · 2019 | 41 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Zlatan Ibrahimović Serie A · 2020 | 39 | €2.8M | €3.0M | flat |
| Miroslav Klose Serie A · 2016 | 38 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Andriy Voronin Premier Liga · 2014 | 35 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Luca Toni Serie A · 2013 | 36 | €500k | €1.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Lazio | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 19 Aug 2021 | Roma | Lazio | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Chelsea | Roma | Free / loan | €9.5M |
| 20 Aug 2015 | Barcelona | Chelsea | €27.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jan 2008 | Barcelona B | Barcelona | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Barcelona C | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Barça U19 | Barcelona C | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | San Isidro You. | Barça U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.