Edouard Michut
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Edouard Michut's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.33x the positional average in the league (1595 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 95
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €448k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1595 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1306
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €537k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; role change CM -> DM; relative output down 69% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -25% to +64%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1595 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | DM | 20 | 1595 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1306 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CM | 18 | 1030 | 34% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 1345 | 1211 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | DM | 2 | 169 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1404 | 1040 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Adana Demirspor | Super Lig | CM | 24 | 1732 | 51% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1284 | 1250 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 5 | 67 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.34 | 0.18 | 1413 | 1714 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1284 | 1727 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anouar El Azzouzi Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Abu Francis Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Yuji Ono Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 24 | €700k | €550k | fell |
| Arnaud Djoum Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Karel Van Roose Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 24 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Joseph Attamah Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €900k | €600k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kourbelis Super League 1 · 2016 | 23 | €1.3M | €2.0M | rose |
| Jens Jakob Thomasen Superliga · 2020 | 24 | €400k | €700k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2024 | Without Club | Fortuna Sittard | Unknown | €2.2M |
| 21 Aug 2024 | Adana Demirspor | Without Club | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | PSG | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Adana Demirspor | PSG | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 15 Sept 2023 | PSG | Adana Demirspor | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Sunderland | PSG | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | PSG | Sunderland | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Paris SG U19 | PSG | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PSG Youth | Paris SG U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Versailles Yth. | PSG Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.