Alex Teixeira

36 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also ST) · Brazil
Panserraikos Serres · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 173 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€125k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€36k – €198k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€74k – €316k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€86k – €134k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€124k – €279k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€36k – €198k
Model value (performance-implied)€74k – €316k
Projected value (24 months)€86k – €134k
Dashed line: current market value (€125k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Alex Teixeira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (745 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €48k vs market €125k
Expected appreciationNeutral+5% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
745 (32% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.24
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.60
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
4 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1104
Opponent strength
1272
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€86k – €134k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -25% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 745 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
19 (ATT)
Relative output kept
99%–112%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
47%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Panserraikos SerresSuper League 1ST974532%110.240.60127211040.43
2021/22Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigAM24125137%410.360.31127613420.42
2015/16FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaAM15135058%2231.670.76129516090.54
2014/15FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaAM22177076%1731.020.44136315790.54
2013/14FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaAM27231889%640.390.26138316320.63
2012/13FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaAM27162860%1030.720.36137416820.70

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü3184001656
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6540311710
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk4360101521
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk8700311638
2014/15Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk756520—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6525311683
2013/14Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk429600—
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk2180001554
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk8580211576
2012/13Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk536340—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kjartan Finnbogason
Superliga · 2021
35€200k€125kfell
Hélder Barbosa
Super League 1 · 2022
35€200k€200kflat
Adam Le Fondre
Scottish Premiership · 2024
38€100k€100kflat
Emmanuel Adebayor
Super Lig · 2020
36€250k€250kflat
Yevgen Seleznyov
Premier Liga · 2022
37€100k€100kflat
Papiss Cissé
Super Lig · 2022
37€250k€200kfell
Thuram
Super Lig · 2024
33€200k€200kflat
Niall McGinn
Scottish Premiership · 2022
35€375k€225kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
15 Jan 2026Without ClubPanserraikosUnknown€175k
10 Sept 2025Vasco da GamaWithout ClubUnknown€200k
15 Jul 2024Without ClubVasco da GamaUnknown€500k
1 Jan 2024Vasco da GamaWithout ClubUnknown€900k
1 Jul 2022BesiktasVasco da GamaFree / loan€2.9M
9 Aug 2021Without ClubBesiktasUnknown€7.0M
1 Jan 2021Jiangsu FCWithout ClubUnknown€12.0M
5 Feb 2016Shakhtar D.JS Suning€50.0M€30.0M
1 Jan 2010Vasco da GamaShakhtar D.€6.0M€3.5M
1 Jan 2008Vasco U20Vasco da GamaUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.