João Victor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Victor's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1380 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1436
- Opponent strength
- 1339
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.5M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -41% to -17%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1380 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 19 | 1380 | 51% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1339 | 1436 | 0.56 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CB | 2 | 27 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1366 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CB | 13 | 838 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 1449 | 1349 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 7 | 573 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaio Premier Liga · 2023 | 28 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Kanu Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 29 | €2.2M | €1.4M | fell |
| Emmanuel Más Super Lig · 2017 | 28 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Lisandro Magallán Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 29 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Eduard Sobol Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €3.2M | €1.5M | fell |
| Stefan Ristovski Liga Portugal · 2020 | 28 | €3.2M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pablo Santos Liga Portugal · 2019 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Djavan Liga Portugal · 2016 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2025 | Vasco da Gama | CSKA Moscow | €4.5M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Benfica | Vasco da Gama | €8.0M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | FC Nantes | Benfica | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 25 Jan 2023 | Benfica | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Corinthians | Benfica | €9.5M | €8.0M |
| 28 Feb 2021 | Atlético-GO | Corinthians | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jul 2020 | Corinthians | Atlético-GO | Free / loan | €50k |
| 26 Apr 2020 | Inter Limeira | Corinthians | Free / loan | €50k |
| 15 Jan 2020 | Corinthians | Inter Limeira | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Corinthians B | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Jan 2017 | Atlético-MG U20 | Corinthians B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 4 Jan 2016 | Botafogo-SP U20 | Atlético-MG U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.