Adam Carlén
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Carlén's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (1224 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €124k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1224 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1324
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €241k – €478k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +30% (IQR +12% to +34%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1224 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 25 | 1224 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1324 | 1183 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Varela Super League 1 · 2017 | 26 | €300k | €350k | flat |
| Radomir Milosavljevic Super League 1 · 2018 | 26 | €350k | €475k | rose |
| Ross Callachan Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 26 | €350k | €450k | rose |
| August Erlingmark Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €1.0M | rose |
| Gaël Bigirimana Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 25 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Jack Ipalibo Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Andriy Kukharuk Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €300k | €400k | rose |
| Chris Erskine Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 27 | €325k | €425k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | IFK Göteborg | Excelsior | Unknown | €700k |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Degerfors | IFK Göteborg | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Aug 2019 | Degerfors U19 | Degerfors | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Degerfors U17 | Degerfors U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | IFK Mariestad | Degerfors U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.