Dailon Livramento
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dailon Livramento's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (940 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 18.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €591k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 940 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1315
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €429k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-141 Elo); league level down (-150 Elo); relative output down 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -34% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 940 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | ST | 24 | 940 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.35 | 1315 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | ST | 29 | 932 | 27% | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.54 | 1507 | 1366 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Cape Verde | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano Slagveer Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Vito Plut Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 25 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| David Texeira Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €550k | €1.0M | rose |
| Yusupha Njie Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €650k | €800k | rose |
| Jens Naessens Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €750k | €500k | fell |
| Denys Vasin Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Julián Montenegro Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Valentin Gheorghe Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €550k | €450k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Casa Pia | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Hellas Verona | Casa Pia | Free / loan | €800k |
| 24 Jul 2024 | MVV Maastricht | Hellas Verona | €700k | €500k |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Roda JC U21 | MVV Maastricht | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | NAC Breda U21 | Roda JC U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | NAC Breda U19 | NAC Breda U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Excelsior M U19 | NAC Breda U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.