Paulo Victor
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paulo Victor's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 7.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 39.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €35k vs market €50k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1260 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1259
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €26k – €104k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 39: resale value typically declines.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1260 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | GK | 14 | 1260 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1259 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | GK | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1378 | 1302 | 0.67 |
| 2016/17 | Gaziantepspor (- 2020) | Super Lig | GK | 14 | 1260 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1369 | 1196 | 0.62 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boy Waterman Super League 1 · 2022 | 38 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Serkan Kirintili Super Lig · 2023 | 38 | €25k | €25k | flat |
| Patrick De Vlamynck Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 38 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Rafael Bracali Liga Portugal · 2020 | 39 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Wouter Biebauw Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 38 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Yevgen Past Premier Liga · 2024 | 36 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Ferhat Kaplan Super Lig · 2023 | 34 | €50k | €25k | fell |
| Thomas Mikkelsen Superliga · 2023 | 40 | €50k | €25k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2025 | Al-Rayyan | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €100k |
| 13 Sept 2024 | Al-Ettifaq | Al-Rayyan | Free / loan | €100k |
| 3 Jul 2022 | Marítimo | Al-Ettifaq | Free / loan | €300k |
| 9 Aug 2021 | Grêmio | Marítimo | Free / loan | €500k |
| 13 Jul 2017 | Flamengo | Grêmio | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Gaziantepspor | Flamengo | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 26 Jan 2017 | Flamengo | Gaziantepspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 10 May 2008 | América-RJ | Flamengo | Free / loan | €50k |
| 10 Feb 2008 | Flamengo | América-RJ | Free / loan | €50k |
| 2 Jan 2008 | Flamengo U20 | Flamengo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2004 | Assisense-SP | Flamengo U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.