Noah Cadiou
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Noah Cadiou's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.4M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-4.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.24x the positional average in the league (1873 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.4M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1873 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1473
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €4.9M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -29% to +6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | CM | 28 | 1873 | 61% | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 1473 | 1420 | 0.88 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Sánchez Ligue 1 · 2013 | 27 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Maxi Moralez Serie A · 2014 | 27 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Tonny Vilhena Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.8M | €1.3M | fell |
| Panagiotis Kone Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €3.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Senijad Ibricic Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Filippo Bandinelli Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Álvaro Aguado Laliga · 2023 | 27 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Óscar Trejo Ligue 1 · 2016 | 28 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | Rodez AF | FC Lorient | €1.0M | €1.2M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | QRM | Rodez AF | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Red Star FC | QRM | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | US Boulogne | Red Star FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ol. Marcquois | US Boulogne | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Marcquois U19 | Ol. Marcquois | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.