Christian Eriksen

34 yrs · Attacking midfielder (also CM, LM, RM) · Denmark
VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€2.5M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€705k – €2.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.7M – €4.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€622k – €2.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€284k – €3.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€705k – €2.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €4.1M
Projected value (24 months)€622k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Christian Eriksen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-4.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.37x the positional average in the league (2424 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh89.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €940k vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-58% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €100M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2424 (79% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.48
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.55
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
89 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1372
Opponent strength
1490
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€622k – €2.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 48 pts; changed club; team strength down (-231 Elo); league level down (-105 Elo); role change CM -> AM; relative output up 38% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -64% to -55%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26VfL WolfsburgBundesligaAM31242479%3100.480.55149013720.94
2024/25Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM23105631%120.260.21154516031.23
2023/24Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM22114033%120.240.17155915941.14
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM28206360%180.390.27156816991.23
2021/22Brentford FCPremier LeagueCM1193827%140.480.40153114831.17
2020/21Inter MilanSerie ACM26139041%300.190.10142917480.90
2019/20Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueAM20109232%220.330.38161316301.14
2019/20Inter MilanSerie AAM1770120%120.390.21137716570.82
2018/19Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueAM35277281%8120.650.38154317321.22
2017/18Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueRM37322694%10110.590.33153017691.15
2016/17Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueAM36316793%8160.680.42152917231.07
2015/16Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueLM35294286%6150.640.39152616351.08
2014/15Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueAM38313892%1020.340.36153515761.06
2013/14Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueLM25198258%790.730.47152416211.12
2013/14Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieAM436012%231.250.43131415510.59
2012/13Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieAM33289395%10160.810.54135415440.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb PokalVfL Wolfsburg19000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United9463231542
2024/25Fa CupManchester United16800—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United4204011614
2023/24Fa CupManchester United28800—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United8533021512
2022/23Fa CupManchester United426400—
2020/21Italy CupInter Milan420510—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueInter Milan499001605
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur5295111674
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueInter Milan6240211523
2019/20Fa CupTottenham Hotspur218000—
2019/20Italy CupInter Milan313610—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur121003241748
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur6535211819
2017/18Fa CupTottenham Hotspur320921—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueTottenham Hotspur6451011597
2016/17Fa CupTottenham Hotspur326016—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur2100111454
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur7574111568
2015/16Fa CupTottenham Hotspur430110—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur4257001533
2014/15Fa CupTottenham Hotspur211600—
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueTottenham Hotspur9455331515
2013/14Fa CupTottenham Hotspur19000—
2013/14Johan Cruijff SchaalAjax Amsterdam190011315
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam6540141628
2012/13Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam530121—
2012/13Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam2210011495

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kim Källström
Premier Liga · 2015
33€2.0M€1.1Mfell
Florent Mollet
Ligue 1 · 2024
33€1.8M€300kfell
Julien Féret
Ligue 1 · 2015
33€1.0M€500kfell
Milan Badelj
Serie A · 2021
32€2.0M€800kfell
Angelo Palombo
Serie A · 2014
33€1.8M€600kfell
Thomas Mangani
Ligue 1 · 2020
33€1.6M€600kfell
Dimitri Liénard
Ligue 1 · 2020
32€1.6M€700kfell
Geoffroy Serey Dié
Bundesliga · 2016
32€1.8M€750kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Sept 2025Without ClubWolfsburgUnknown€4.0M
1 Jul 2025Man UtdWithout ClubUnknown€4.0M
15 Jul 2022BrentfordMan UtdFree / loan€20.0M
31 Jan 2022Without ClubBrentfordUnknown€15.0M
17 Dec 2021InterWithout ClubUnknown€15.0M
28 Jan 2020TottenhamInter€27.0M€90.0M
30 Aug 2013AjaxTottenham€14.2M€18.0M
1 Jan 2010Ajax U19AjaxUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2009Odense BK U19Ajax U19€1.5MData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Odense BK YouthOdense BK U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.