Ivan Lepskiy
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Lepskiy's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 20th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €846k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 21% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1150 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 20 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1262
- Opponent strength
- 1353
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 21%
- Resale range (24m)
- €474k – €2.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +50% (IQR -9% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1150 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1150 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1353 | 1262 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 3 | 262 | 10% | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 1298 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | CB | 1 | 71 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1245 | 1374 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | PFK Krylya Sovetov Samara | 6 | 540 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 5 | 269 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilles Ruyssen Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 22 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Nikolay Poyarkov Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Jordy de Wijs Eredivisie · 2017 | 22 | €600k | €1.8M | rose |
| Yevgen Martynenko Premier Liga · 2015 | 22 | €400k | €600k | rose |
| Bruno Rodrigues Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Aleksandar Bjelica Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 22 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
| Jonas Bager Superliga · 2017 | 21 | €350k | €600k | rose |
| Oliver Bundgaard Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €800k | €1.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Dynamo Moscow | KS Samara | €300k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2026 | KS Samara | Dynamo Moscow | Free / loan | €800k |
| 9 Jul 2025 | Dynamo Moscow | KS Samara | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Sokol Saratov | Dynamo Moscow | Free / loan | €500k |
| 9 Jan 2025 | Dynamo Moscow | Sokol Saratov | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Dynamo 2 | Dynamo Moscow | Unknown | €250k |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Ak. Dinamo U16 | Dynamo 2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.