Bernardo Schappo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bernardo Schappo's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €494k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2055 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1343
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €409k – €954k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -40% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2055 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1343 | 1195 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Didi Super Lig · 2017 | 26 | €600k | €100k | fell |
| Siebe Blondelle Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 27 | €600k | €450k | fell |
| Nemanja Miletic Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 26 | €450k | €2.8M | rose |
| Nuno Campos Liga Portugal · 2019 | 26 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Benjamin Lambot Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 26 | €650k | €550k | flat |
| Tiago Mesquita Liga Portugal · 2016 | 26 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Leon Bergsma Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Sergiy Lyulka Premier Liga · 2017 | 27 | €700k | €600k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jul 2025 | Fortaleza | Estrela Amadora | €200k | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Vila Nova FC | Fortaleza | Free / loan | €750k |
| 9 Jan 2025 | Fortaleza | Vila Nova FC | Free / loan | €650k |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Botafogo-SP | Fortaleza | Free / loan | €650k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Fortaleza | Botafogo-SP | Free / loan | €750k |
| 31 Mar 2023 | Ituano | Fortaleza | €350k | €400k |
| 1 Mar 2021 | Ituano U20 | Ituano | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.