William Madsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates William Madsen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (906 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 90
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €294k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 906 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1222
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €324k – €718k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -24% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 906 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Fredericia | Superliga | CM | 19 | 906 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 1222 | 1183 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Fredericia | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathías Tomás Super League 1 · 2024 | 23 | €500k | €900k | rose |
| Hamdi Akujobi Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €550k | €300k | fell |
| Aleksandr Osipov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Mathias Hebo Superliga · 2018 | 23 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Rezan Corlu Superliga · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Abdoulaye Keita Super League 1 · 2019 | 25 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Franco Baldassarra Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Gaël Bigirimana Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 25 | €350k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | HB Köge | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | HB Köge U19 | HB Köge | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | HB Köge Youth | HB Köge U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.