Ogün Özçiçek
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ogün Özçiçek's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1171 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €169k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1171 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1167
- Opponent strength
- 1265
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €290k – €594k
Trajectory drivers: role change CM -> DM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -22% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1171 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | DM | 21 | 1171 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1265 | 1167 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | CM | 25 | 1096 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 1289 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | DM | 29 | 1999 | 58% | 3 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 1281 | 1212 | 0.45 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adnan Secerovic Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Lasha Shergelashvili Super League 1 · 2019 | 27 | €350k | €275k | fell |
| Jack Ipalibo Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Kirill Malyarov Premier Liga · 2024 | 27 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Nwankwo Obiora Super League 1 · 2018 | 27 | €350k | €475k | rose |
| Cameron McGeehan Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 27 | €650k | €500k | fell |
| Ragnar Oratmangoen Eredivisie · 2024 | 26 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Adrián Colombino Super League 1 · 2021 | 28 | €600k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2024 | Y. Malatyaspor | Gaziantep FK | €300k | €550k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Gaziantep FK | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €550k |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Y. Malatyaspor | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | C. Rizespor | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €500k |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Y. Malatyaspor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Van Spor FK | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €150k |
| 8 Feb 2022 | Y. Malatyaspor | Van Spor FK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 7 Feb 2022 | Adiyaman FK | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €50k |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Y. Malatyaspor | Adiyaman FK | Free / loan | €50k |
| 13 Aug 2021 | Yomra Spor | Y. Malatyaspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 19 Aug 2019 | Arakli 1961 | Yomra Spor | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.