Samuel Gueulette
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samuel Gueulette's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.61x the positional average in the league (995 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 97
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €206k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 995 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1297
- Opponent strength
- 1391
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €268k – €667k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -29% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 995 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 24 | 995 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1391 | 1296 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | RAAL La Louvière | 5 | 266 | 0 | 0 | 1275 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Keita Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 27 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| João Afonso Liga Portugal · 2021 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Kamal Issah Super Lig · 2018 | 26 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Ricardo Dias Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Abdullahi Shehu Super Lig · 2018 | 25 | €700k | €650k | flat |
| Arthur Henrique Liga Portugal · 2020 | 26 | €475k | €500k | flat |
| Johan Mårtensson Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Jorge Correa Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €800k | €650k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2021 | Without Club | La Louvière | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Sept 2020 | KSV Roeselare | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 27 Jul 2020 | AFC Tubize | KSV Roeselare | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2019 | KAA Gent U21 | AFC Tubize | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.