Maksim Samorodov
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Maksim Samorodov's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-3.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.59x the positional average in the league (1947 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1947 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.69
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1341
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €3.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -36% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | RW | 29 | 1947 | 72% | 5 | 10 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 1341 | 1279 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | RFK Akhmat Grozny | Premier Liga | RW | 24 | 1711 | 63% | 6 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 1311 | 1248 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 277 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | RFK Akhmat Grozny | 5 | 214 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Aktobe | 2 | 205 | 0 | 0 | 1314 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Tabata Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Mario González Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 25 | €3.5M | €800k | fell |
| Iuri Medeiros Liga Portugal · 2017 | 23 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Valon Ethemi Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Hyun-jun Suk Liga Portugal · 2016 | 25 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Mohamed Belloumi Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Amr Warda Super League 1 · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2024 | Aktobe | Akhmat Grozny | €1.0M | €1.2M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Aktobe II | Aktobe | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.