Iago Aspas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iago Aspas's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (1130 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 75.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 38.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €689k vs market €1.6M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -37% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1130 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.64
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1447
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €505k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; role change RW -> ST; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -71% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 39: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1130 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 32 | 1130 | 33% | 5 | 3 | 0.64 | 0.51 | 1447 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RW | 30 | 1744 | 51% | 10 | 5 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 1483 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2717 | 79% | 9 | 10 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 1503 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 37 | 2866 | 84% | 12 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 1504 | 1441 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 37 | 3095 | 90% | 18 | 6 | 0.70 | 0.68 | 1538 | 1499 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 33 | 2871 | 84% | 14 | 13 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 1564 | 1535 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 37 | 3269 | 96% | 14 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 1543 | 1479 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 27 | 2262 | 66% | 20 | 6 | 1.03 | 0.93 | 1545 | 1494 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RW | 34 | 2938 | 86% | 22 | 5 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 1538 | 1523 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 32 | 2319 | 68% | 19 | 4 | 0.89 | 0.74 | 1577 | 1520 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2669 | 78% | 14 | 5 | 0.64 | 0.53 | 1570 | 1569 | 1.17 |
| 2013/14 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | SS | 14 | 380 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 1544 | 1745 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | ST | 34 | 2802 | 82% | 12 | 7 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 1513 | 1428 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 14 | 752 | 3 | 3 | 1487 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 95 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 28 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 54 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 110 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 154 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 12 | 865 | 5 | 2 | 1593 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 424 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 407 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 229 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl García Laliga · 2023 | 37 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Claudio Pizarro Bundesliga · 2017 | 39 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Klaas-Jan Huntelaar Bundesliga · 2021 | 38 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Jorge Molina Laliga · 2021 | 39 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Álvaro Negredo Laliga · 2023 | 38 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| José Luis Morales Laliga · 2024 | 37 | €1.5M | €200k | fell |
| Francesco Totti Serie A · 2015 | 39 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Charles Laliga · 2020 | 36 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2015 | Sevilla FC | Celta de Vigo | €5.3M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Liverpool | Sevilla FC | €6.0M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Sevilla FC | Liverpool | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 14 Jul 2014 | Liverpool | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Celta de Vigo | Liverpool | €10.8M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Celta Vigo B | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2006 | Bouzas | Celta U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Celta U19 | Bouzas | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Celta Vigo Yth. | Celta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.