Nélson Oliveira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nélson Oliveira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.54x the positional average in the league (1315 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 43th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €131k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1315 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 43 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1299
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €84k – €202k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -64% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1315 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | ST | 26 | 1315 | 43% | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 1299 | 1361 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | ST | 31 | 1783 | 58% | 3 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 1356 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | ST | 15 | 601 | 20% | 2 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.59 | 1379 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Konyaspor | Super Lig | ST | 15 | 454 | 13% | 0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 1359 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | ST | 24 | 1638 | 70% | 7 | 2 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 1252 | 1452 | 0.37 |
| 2020/21 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | ST | 21 | 976 | 42% | 5 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.43 | 1238 | 1363 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | ST | 17 | 1226 | 52% | 9 | 4 | 0.95 | 0.62 | 1301 | 1451 | 0.46 |
| 2014/15 | Swansea City | Premier League | ST | 10 | 389 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 1543 | 1498 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 30 | 1748 | 51% | 8 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 1503 | 1404 | 0.79 |
| 2012/13 | Deportivo de La Coruña | Laliga | ST | 30 | 850 | 25% | 4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 1528 | 1437 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 6 | 302 | 2 | 1 | 1338 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 4 | 208 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 156 | 1 | 0 | 1407 |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 59 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 293 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 219 | 1 | 0 | 1548 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 2 | 177 | 1 | 0 | 1486 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 350 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 4 | 289 | 0 | 3 | 1437 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Swansea City | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo de La Coruña | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimitar Rangelov Super Lig · 2017 | 34 | €300k | €75k | fell |
| Edgar Costa Liga Portugal · 2021 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Cedric van der Gun Eredivisie · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Ryan Babel Super Lig · 2022 | 36 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Steven MacLean Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 37 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Necati Ates Super Lig · 2015 | 35 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Mateus Liga Portugal · 2020 | 36 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Éder Premier Liga · 2021 | 34 | €700k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Vit. Guimarães | Without Club | Unknown | €200k |
| 24 Jan 2024 | Konyaspor | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €800k |
| 4 Sept 2023 | PAOK | Konyaspor | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 9 Jul 2021 | AEK Athens | PAOK | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 20 Jul 2019 | Norwich | AEK Athens | €1.0M | €3.5M |
| 31 May 2019 | Reading | Norwich | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 22 Jan 2019 | Norwich | Reading | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Aug 2016 | Benfica | Norwich | €5.8M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Nott'm Forest | Benfica | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Sept 2015 | Benfica | Nott'm Forest | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Swansea | Benfica | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Benfica | Swansea | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Stade Rennais | Benfica | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 26 Jul 2013 | Benfica | Stade Rennais | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Dep. La Coruña | Benfica | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Jul 2012 | Benfica | Dep. La Coruña | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Paços Ferreira | Benfica | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 12 Aug 2010 | Benfica | Paços Ferreira | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Rio Ave | Benfica | Free / loan | €500k |
| 21 Jan 2010 | Benfica | Rio Ave | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Benfica U19 | Benfica | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Benfica U17 | Benfica U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | SC Braga Youth | Benfica U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.