Santi García
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Santi García's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-5.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (2649 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 62
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.5M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2649 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €6.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 38 pts; team strength up (+68 Elo); role change CM -> AM; relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -63% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | AM | 33 | 2649 | 87% | 6 | 3 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 1321 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 27 | 1476 | 48% | 4 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 1334 | 1235 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Getafe CF | Laliga | AM | 1 | 24 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1463 | 1415 | 1.00 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koray Altinay Super Lig · 2016 | 25 | €3.0M | €400k | fell |
| Eric-Junior Bocat Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 25 | €2.2M | €2.2M | flat |
| Stephen Eustaquio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Andrew Hjulsager Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mustafa Saymak Eredivisie · 2018 | 25 | €2.5M | €725k | fell |
| Rúben Pinto Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Nuno Santos Liga Portugal · 2022 | 23 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Battaglia Liga Portugal · 2017 | 26 | €3.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | Getafe CF B | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Trival Vald U19 | Getafe CF B | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.