Nikolaos Kaltsas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolaos Kaltsas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.87x the positional average in the league (1306 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 11.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €46k vs market €125k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1306 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1239
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €67k – €126k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 21 pts; league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -32% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1306 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 19 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 99%–112%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 47%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 20 | 1306 | 56% | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 1239 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 24 | 1806 | 77% | 6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 1248 | 1185 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 25 | 1753 | 75% | 5 | 8 | 0.67 | 0.64 | 1266 | 1212 | 0.42 |
| 2018/19 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 26 | 2200 | 81% | 5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 1301 | 1257 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 23 | 1578 | 58% | 5 | 4 | 0.51 | 0.58 | 1284 | 1332 | 0.48 |
| 2016/17 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RW | 22 | 1548 | 57% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.35 | 1314 | 1217 | 0.44 |
| 2015/16 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RM | 19 | 911 | 34% | 5 | 2 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 1268 | 1424 | 0.46 |
| 2014/15 | Veria NPS | Super League 1 | RW | 30 | 2553 | 83% | 12 | 7 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 1301 | 1223 | 0.44 |
| 2013/14 | Veria NPS | Super League 1 | RM | 30 | 2225 | 73% | 2 | 7 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 1345 | 1275 | 0.52 |
| 2012/13 | Veria NPS | Super League 1 | RW | 26 | 1035 | 38% | 4 | 4 | 0.70 | 0.72 | 1339 | 1303 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 256 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 378 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 179 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 305 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 1328 |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 472 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 286 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1345 |
| 2014/15 | Kypello Elladas | Veria NPS | 3 | 88 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Kypello Elladas | Veria NPS | 1 | 39 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Kypello Elladas | Veria NPS | 4 | 282 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michiel Kramer Eredivisie · 2024 | 36 | €275k | €100k | fell |
| Igor Super League 1 · 2016 | 36 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Anton Shynder Premier Liga · 2021 | 34 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Dougie Imrie Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 36 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Erik Jendrisek Super League 1 · 2020 | 34 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Vangelis Mantzios Super League 1 · 2017 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Artem Sitalo Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Steven Fletcher Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Karmiotissa | Asteras Tripoli | Free / loan | €400k |
| 2 Jul 2022 | Anorthosis | Karmiotissa | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Aug 2019 | Asteras Tripoli | Anorthosis | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripoli | €180k | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PAE Veria | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2007 | PAE Veria U20 | PAE Veria | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.