Matheus Pereira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matheus Pereira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (720 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 17.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €920k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 720 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 11)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1321
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €667k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 33 pts; role change LM -> LW; relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -53% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 720 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | LW | 10 | 720 | 24% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 1321 | 1275 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | LM | 28 | 1720 | 56% | 0 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.31 | 1366 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | LB | 30 | 2096 | 68% | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 1393 | 1199 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | FC Vizela | Liga Portugal | LB | 18 | 801 | 26% | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1352 | 1290 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 6 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jens Naessens Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Sloan Privat Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Jarchinio Antonia Eredivisie · 2016 | 26 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Bruno Duarte Liga Portugal · 2021 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.3M | flat |
| Taichi Hara Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €900k | €1.2M | rose |
| Stephen Buyl Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 24 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Fábio Sturgeon Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €1.0M | €475k | fell |
| Mustafa Durak Super Lig · 2016 | 28 | €1.5M | €125k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2026 | Santa Clara | Toronto | €800k | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Vizela | Santa Clara | €500k | €800k |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Cruzeiro | Vizela | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Guarani | Cruzeiro | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Feb 2022 | Cruzeiro | Guarani | Free / loan | €400k |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Cruzeiro U20 | Cruzeiro | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.