Amin Sarr

25 yrs · Striker · Sweden
Hellas Verona · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.4M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.5M – €4.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€951k – €3.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.2M – €3.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.5M – €4.9M
Projected value (24 months)€951k – €3.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.4M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Amin Sarr's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-4.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.79x the positional average in the league (1086 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 25

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage44.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.3 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €2.2M vs market €2.4M
Expected appreciationLow-25% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €9.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1086 (32% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.08
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.40
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
45 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1269
Opponent strength
1500
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€951k – €3.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; team strength down (-97 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -62% to -26%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1086 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Hellas VeronaSerie AST34108632%010.080.40150012690.93
2024/25Hellas VeronaSerie AST32192156%410.230.46152013660.99
2023/24VfL WolfsburgBundesligaST1437712%000.000.43154814271.01
2023/24Olympique LyonLigue 1ST3973%000.000.47149615210.87
2022/23SC HeerenveenEredivisieST19163653%550.550.55132613060.58
2022/23Olympique LyonLigue 1ST1353616%110.340.36142415490.82
2021/22SC HeerenveenEredivisieST13108135%510.500.64135712870.60

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupHellas Verona210700—
2022/23Knvb BekerSC Heerenveen18201—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingMalmö Fotbollförening117001288

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
M'Bala Nzola
Serie A · 2022
26€2.0M€7.0Mrose
Benito Raman
Bundesliga · 2021
27€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Tomas Pekhart
Bundesliga · 2014
25€1.8M€500kfell
Yaya Sanogo
Ligue 1 · 2019
26€2.5M€1.2Mfell
Bobby Wood
Bundesliga · 2019
27€1.5M€600kfell
Manuel Pucciarelli
Serie A · 2018
27€2.5M€1.4Mfell
Florian Raspentino
Ligue 1 · 2013
24€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Yazalde
Liga Portugal · 2013
25€2.2M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025LyonHellas Verona€3.5M€5.0M
30 Jun 2025Hellas VeronaLyonFree / loan€5.0M
27 Aug 2024LyonHellas VeronaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2024WolfsburgLyonFree / loan€4.0M
31 Aug 2023LyonWolfsburgFree / loan€8.0M
30 Jan 2023HeerenveenLyon€11.0M€3.5M
31 Jan 2022MalmöHeerenveen€2.3M€800k
30 Nov 2021Mjällby AIFMalmöFree / loan€500k
16 Jul 2021MalmöMjällby AIFFree / loan€450k
23 Apr 2020Malmö FF U19MalmöUnknownData unavailable
8 Jan 2019Malmö FF U17Malmö FF U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2018Trelleborg U17Malmö FF U17Free / loanData unavailable
8 Jan 2017Husie IFTrelleborg U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.