Devon Koswal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Devon Koswal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 80
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 4.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €382k vs market €450k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 18% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1638 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1216
- Opponent strength
- 1311
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 18%
- Resale range (24m)
- €321k – €796k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -43% to +47%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1638 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Telstar | Eredivisie | CB | 25 | 1638 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1311 | 1215 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Telstar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oleksiy Bykov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Fahd Aktaou Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €400k | €275k | fell |
| Oleksandr Martynyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €500k | €1.5M | rose |
| Nikolaos Pantidos Super League 1 · 2015 | 24 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Owusu-Ansah Kontor Super League 1 · 2017 | 24 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Danylo Beskorovaynyi Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €500k | €600k | rose |
| Enzo Cornelisse Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €375k | €375k | flat |
| Jurgen Mattheij Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €300k | €800k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2023 | FC Dordrecht | Telstar | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Dordrecht U21 | FC Dordrecht | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Dordrecht U17 | Dordrecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Spartaan Yth. | Dordrecht U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Excelsior Jeugd | Spartaan Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Spartaan Yth. | Excelsior Jeugd | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Alexandria Yth. | Spartaan Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.