Danyil Alefirenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Danyil Alefirenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.54x the positional average in the league (983 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €313k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 983 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.21
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1200
- Opponent strength
- 1126
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €233k – €609k
Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> RW; relative output down 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -34% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 983 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 94%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | RW | 22 | 983 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 1126 | 1200 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | LW | 25 | 1184 | 44% | 1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.45 | 1213 | 1186 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | LW | 10 | 625 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 1234 | 1235 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | LW | 14 | 1159 | 43% | 8 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.79 | 1279 | 1188 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 5 | 38 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 2.37 | 0.56 | 1296 | 1406 | 0.38 |
| 2021/22 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RW | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1355 | 1426 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | ST | 3 | 28 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 3.21 | 0.47 | 1277 | 1450 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 26 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Kolos Kovalivka | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1554 |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1360 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Zorya Lugansk | 1 | 37 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gilbert Koomson Super Lig · 2021 | 27 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Fabricio Alvarenga Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Andriy Kulakov Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Konstantinos Kotsopoulos Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Ximo Navarro Super League 1 · 2015 | 27 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Connor Shields Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Joe Cardle Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Moryké Fofana Super Lig · 2021 | 30 | €700k | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Zorya Lugansk | Kolos Kovalivka | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Chornomorets | Zorya Lugansk | Free / loan | €700k |
| 13 Jan 2023 | Zorya Lugansk | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Zorya II | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Zorya U19 | Zorya II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Metalist U17 | Zorya U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Sept 2016 | SK Metalist | Metalist U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2016 | Metalist U17 | SK Metalist | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.