
Kiko Femenía
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kiko Femenía's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 84.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €235k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -32% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2021 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1446
- Opponent strength
- 1506
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €228k – €603k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-152 Elo); relative output up 85% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -56% to -28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Getafe CF | Laliga | RB | 28 | 2021 | 59% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1506 | 1446 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RB | 28 | 2229 | 65% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1521 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RB | 23 | 1581 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1445 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | RB | 20 | 1135 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1499 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Watford FC | Premier League | RB | 27 | 2150 | 63% | 0 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 1581 | 1329 | 1.17 |
| 2019/20 | Watford FC | Premier League | RB | 28 | 2241 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1616 | 1433 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Watford FC | Premier League | RB | 29 | 2046 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1541 | 1492 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Watford FC | Premier League | RB | 23 | 1716 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 1560 | 1436 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RB | 31 | 2503 | 73% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1569 | 1518 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 4 | 289 | 0 | 1 | 1546 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 177 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 3 | 288 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 6 | 484 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Deumi Super Lig · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €50k | fell |
| Paul Konchesky Premier League · 2015 | 34 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Ugur Kavuk Super Lig · 2013 | 34 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Damián Suárez Laliga · 2023 | 35 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Daniele Gastaldello Serie A · 2017 | 34 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Danny Gabbidon Premier League · 2014 | 35 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Luca Caldirola Serie A · 2024 | 33 | €1.3M | €400k | fell |
| Lars Jacobsen Ligue 1 · 2015 | 36 | €500k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Villarreal | Getafe | Free / loan | €900k |
| 28 Jul 2022 | Watford | Villarreal | €980k | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Alavés | Watford | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Jul 2015 | AD Alcorcón | Alavés | Free / loan | €400k |
| 7 Jan 2015 | Without Club | AD Alcorcón | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2014 | RM Castilla | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Aug 2013 | Barcelona B | RM Castilla | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Hércules CF | Barcelona B | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Hércules CF B | Hércules CF | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Hércules U19 | Hércules CF B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.