Kiko Femenía

35 yrs · Right-back · Spain
Getafe CF · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 174 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€700k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€176k – €575k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€692k – €1.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€228k – €603k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€117k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€176k – €575k
Model value (performance-implied)€692k – €1.5M
Projected value (24 months)€228k – €603k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kiko Femenía's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh84.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €235k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-32% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2021 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
84 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1446
Opponent strength
1506
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€228k – €603k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-152 Elo); relative output up 85% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -56% to -28%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Getafe CFLaligaRB28202159%110.090.14150614460.95
2024/25Villarreal CFLaligaRB28222965%010.040.07152115970.95
2023/24Villarreal CFLaligaRB23158146%000.000.05144515771.00
2022/23Villarreal CFLaligaRB20113533%000.000.05149915810.98
2021/22Watford FCPremier LeagueRB27215063%050.210.26158113291.17
2019/20Watford FCPremier LeagueRB28224166%010.040.10161614331.14
2018/19Watford FCPremier LeagueRB29204660%110.090.12154114921.22
2017/18Watford FCPremier LeagueRB23171650%100.050.12156014361.15
2016/17Deportivo AlavésLaligaRB31250373%020.070.09156915181.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyGetafe CF13100—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueVillarreal CF4289011546
2023/24Copa Del ReyVillarreal CF213500—
2022/23Copa Del ReyVillarreal CF217700—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingVillarreal CF2109001416
2018/19Fa CupWatford FC328800—
2016/17Copa Del ReyDeportivo Alavés648400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Armand Deumi
Super Lig · 2013
34€500k€50kfell
Paul Konchesky
Premier League · 2015
34€500k€250kfell
Ugur Kavuk
Super Lig · 2013
34€400k€400kflat
Damián Suárez
Laliga · 2023
35€1.0M€650kfell
Daniele Gastaldello
Serie A · 2017
34€600k€300kfell
Danny Gabbidon
Premier League · 2014
35€500k€250kfell
Luca Caldirola
Serie A · 2024
33€1.3M€400kfell
Lars Jacobsen
Ligue 1 · 2015
36€500k€500kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025VillarrealGetafeFree / loan€900k
28 Jul 2022WatfordVillarreal€980k€2.5M
1 Jul 2017AlavésWatfordFree / loan€4.0M
2 Jul 2015AD AlcorcónAlavésFree / loan€400k
7 Jan 2015Without ClubAD AlcorcónUnknownData unavailable
1 Sept 2014RM CastillaWithout ClubUnknownData unavailable
26 Aug 2013Barcelona BRM CastillaFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2011Hércules CFBarcelona B€2.0M€2.0M
1 Jul 2009Hércules CF BHércules CFUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2008Hércules U19Hércules CF BUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.