Mamadou Maiga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mamadou Maiga's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (644 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 3.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €208k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 644 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 4 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1176
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €218k – €513k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -29% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 644 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 18 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 54%–153%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 56%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | DM | 11 | 644 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1352 | 1176 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | DM | 10 | 675 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1316 | 1181 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | DM | 20 | 1783 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1317 | 1164 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Nizhny Novgorod | Premier Liga | DM | 22 | 1675 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1330 | 1226 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 5 | 222 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 4 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 459 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Draper Scottish Premiership · 2020 | 32 | €300k | €275k | flat |
| Robert Ahman-Persson Liga Portugal · 2017 | 30 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Yan Kazaev Premier Liga · 2024 | 33 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Lee Cattermole Eredivisie · 2020 | 32 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Frederik Boi Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 32 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Sisi González Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Daniel Kolar Super Lig · 2017 | 32 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Vyacheslav Podberezkin Premier Liga · 2023 | 31 | €400k | €350k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Veles Moscow | Pari NN | €250k | €600k |
| 14 Jul 2020 | Jeanne d'Arc FC | Veles Moscow | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.