Isak Jensen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Isak Jensen's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.2M-8.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-11.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (2045 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.1M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2045 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.31
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1315
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €11.1M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+171 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -49% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | LW | 33 | 2045 | 67% | 2 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 1315 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Viborg FF | Superliga | LW | 19 | 1434 | 72% | 5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 1301 | 1222 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Viborg FF | Superliga | LW | 16 | 1000 | 51% | 3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 1324 | 1261 | 0.48 |
| 2021/22 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | LW | 13 | 328 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 1334 | 1129 | 0.45 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 320 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 185 | 0 | 2 | 1382 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 6 | 316 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 2 | 132 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 4 | 187 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | Sönderjyske Fodbold | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olakunle Olusegun Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Frédéric Bulot Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 23 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jean-Paul Boëtius Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €4.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Jonathan Reis Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Othmane Boussaid Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €2.3M | €1.2M | fell |
| Mounir Chouiar Super Lig · 2023 | 24 | €3.2M | €3.0M | flat |
| Robert Mak Super League 1 · 2016 | 25 | €3.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Nikola Stojiljkovic Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2025 | Viborg FF | AZ Alkmaar | €4.0M | €2.7M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | St. Louis CITY | Viborg FF | Unknown | €1.7M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Viborg FF | St. Louis CITY | Free / loan | €1.7M |
| 30 Aug 2023 | St. Louis CITY | Viborg FF | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 11 Jul 2022 | Sönderjyske U19 | St. Louis CITY | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | SJF Youth | Sönderjyske U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2020 | Odense BK Youth | SJF Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Naesby BK Youth | Odense BK Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.