Aïssa Mandi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aïssa Mandi's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 88.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €750k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2427 (79% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1547
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €357k – €802k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; relative output up 121% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -67% to -58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2427 | 79% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1478 | 1547 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 1736 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1423 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 16 | 1114 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1483 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1459 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1507 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 17 | 1374 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1482 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 28 | 2393 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1574 | 1557 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 29 | 2578 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1523 | 1481 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 35 | 3060 | 89% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1553 | 1510 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 34 | 3025 | 88% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1558 | 1522 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | CB | 26 | 2217 | 65% | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1565 | 1419 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | CB | 32 | 2860 | 84% | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 1437 | 1333 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | RB | 32 | 2806 | 82% | 6 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 1444 | 1359 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | RB | 33 | 2919 | 85% | 0 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1479 | 1358 | 0.79 |
| 2012/13 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | CB | 29 | 2460 | 72% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1452 | 1429 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | LOSC Lille | 11 | 851 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Algeria | 5 | 420 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Algeria | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 5 | 320 | 0 | 0 | 1699 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1577 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 5 | 405 | 0 | 0 | 1535 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 4 | 338 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Villarreal CF | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1680 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 4 | 420 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 660 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 157 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaily Ligue 1 · 2024 | 34 | €1.8M | €700k | fell |
| Christian Maggio Serie A · 2015 | 33 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Vasiliy Berezutski Premier Liga · 2017 | 35 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Kirill Nababkin Premier Liga · 2019 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Jaume Costa Laliga · 2023 | 35 | €1.2M | €900k | fell |
| Rod Fanni Ligue 1 · 2017 | 36 | €500k | €175k | fell |
| Nemanja Vidic Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Martin Jiranek Premier Liga · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2024 | Villarreal | Lille | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Real Betis | Villarreal | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Stade Reims | Real Betis | €2.8M | €4.5M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Stade Reims B | Stade Reims | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Stade Reims U19 | Stade Reims B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.