Iyad Mohamed
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iyad Mohamed's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.17x the positional average in the league (948 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €153k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 948 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1314
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €281k – €553k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 15 pts; relative output up 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -32% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 948 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | DM | 22 | 948 | 31% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 1314 | 1225 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Casa Pia AC | Liga Portugal | DM | 10 | 486 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1330 | 1276 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Comoros | 3 | 136 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilija Vukotić Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Vladislav Panteleev Premier Liga · 2021 | 25 | €600k | €275k | fell |
| Oskar Buur Eredivisie · 2023 | 25 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Giorgi Aburjania Eredivisie · 2020 | 25 | €475k | €500k | flat |
| Luigi Vaccaro Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 25 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Andrea Chukanov Premier Liga · 2020 | 25 | €550k | €450k | flat |
| Vajebah Sakor Super League 1 · 2020 | 24 | €350k | €125k | fell |
| Kenneth Houdret Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €450k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Pau FC | Casa Pia | €100k | €600k |
| 8 Jul 2023 | SM Caen | Pau FC | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Le Mans FC | SM Caen | Free / loan | €200k |
| 2 Jan 2023 | SM Caen | Le Mans FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | AJ Auxerre | SM Caen | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AJ Auxerre B | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AJ Auxerre U19 | AJ Auxerre B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Dunkerque U19 | AJ Auxerre U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.