
Lukasz Skorupski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lukasz Skorupski's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 82.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €903k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1594 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1523
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €581k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -75% (IQR -81% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1594 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 19 | 1594 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1467 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 27 | 2365 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1493 | 1559 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1487 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1468 | 1482 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1481 | 1395 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1463 | 1380 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1438 | 1365 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1459 | 1367 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1404 | 1712 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | FC Empoli | Serie A | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1492 | 1312 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | FC Empoli | Serie A | GK | 31 | 2790 | 82% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1482 | 1425 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1531 | 1574 | 0.93 |
| 2013/14 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | GK | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1585 | 1609 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1451 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | FC Empoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1559 |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1812 |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Marchetti Serie A · 2017 | 34 | €2.0M | €300k | fell |
| Steeve Elana Ligue 1 · 2013 | 33 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Ilya Abaev Premier Liga · 2015 | 34 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Andriy Dykan Premier Liga · 2013 | 36 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Diego Benaglio Bundesliga · 2017 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Diego López Serie A · 2016 | 35 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Artur Boruc Premier League · 2013 | 33 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Maarten Stekelenburg Premier League · 2017 | 35 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Roma | Bologna | €9.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | FC Empoli | Roma | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Roma | FC Empoli | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 12 Jul 2013 | Górnik Zabrze | Roma | €890k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Radzionkow | Górnik Zabrze | Free / loan | €125k |
| 25 Feb 2011 | Górnik Zabrze | Radzionkow | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Gornik U19 | Górnik Zabrze | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.