Lukasz Skorupski

35 yrs · Goalkeeper · Poland
Bologna Football Club 1909 · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€678k – €2.1M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€818k – €2.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€581k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.3M – €1.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€678k – €2.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€818k – €2.5M
Projected value (24 months)€581k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Lukasz Skorupski's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh82.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €903k vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-52% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €7.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1594 (47% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1523
Opponent strength
1467
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€581k – €1.4M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -75% (IQR -81% to -50%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1594 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK19159447%000.000.00146715230.93
2024/25Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK27236569%000.000.00149315590.99
2023/24Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK32288084%000.000.00148715790.98
2022/23Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK37333097%000.000.00146814820.94
2021/22Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK36324095%000.000.00148113950.89
2020/21Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK28252074%000.000.00146313800.90
2019/20Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK37333097%000.000.00143813650.82
2018/19Bologna Football Club 1909Serie AGK383420100%000.000.00145913670.78
2017/18Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie AGK1903%000.000.00140417120.86
2016/17FC EmpoliSerie AGK35315092%000.000.00149213120.88
2015/16FC EmpoliSerie AGK31279082%000.000.00148214250.95
2014/15Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie AGK32708%000.000.00153115740.93
2013/14Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie AGK21805%000.000.00158516090.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueBologna Football Club 19099810001451
2025/26Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBologna Football Club 19097630001626
2024/25Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909327000—
2023/24Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909221000—
2022/23Italy CupBologna Football Club 1909218000—
2021/22Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2019/20Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2018/19Italy CupBologna Football Club 190919000—
2017/18Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma19000—
2015/16Italy CupFC Empoli19000—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma4360001559
2014/15Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma221000—
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma2180001812
2013/14Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Federico Marchetti
Serie A · 2017
34€2.0M€300kfell
Steeve Elana
Ligue 1 · 2013
33€2.5M€500kfell
Ilya Abaev
Premier Liga · 2015
34€2.0M€200kfell
Andriy Dykan
Premier Liga · 2013
36€1.0M€250kfell
Diego Benaglio
Bundesliga · 2017
34€1.0M€500kfell
Diego López
Serie A · 2016
35€2.0M€500kfell
Artur Boruc
Premier League · 2013
33€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Maarten Stekelenburg
Premier League · 2017
35€2.0M€1.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2018RomaBologna€9.0M€7.0M
30 Jun 2017FC EmpoliRomaFree / loan€7.0M
1 Jul 2015RomaFC EmpoliFree / loan€1.5M
12 Jul 2013Górnik ZabrzeRoma€890k€1.0M
30 Jun 2011RadzionkowGórnik ZabrzeFree / loan€125k
25 Feb 2011Górnik ZabrzeRadzionkowFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2008Gornik U19Górnik ZabrzeUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.