Denys Pidgurskyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Denys Pidgurskyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.36x the positional average in the league (1756 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €346k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1756 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1039
- Opponent strength
- 1151
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €263k – €827k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-160 Elo); relative output down 40% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -38% to +34%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1756 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 26 | 1756 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1151 | 1039 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 28 | 1794 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1218 | 1199 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 16 | 1007 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1240 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | DM | 13 | 958 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1239 | 1218 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yegor Prokopenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Taras Moroz Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Mikkel Wohlgemuth Superliga · 2019 | 24 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| John McGinn Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 21 | €450k | €550k | rose |
| Dálcio Super League 1 · 2021 | 25 | €400k | €700k | rose |
| Karim Hafez Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Maksym Grysyo Premier Liga · 2023 | 27 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Scott Martin Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €150k | €350k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Rukh Lviv U19 | Rukh Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 29 Jul 2021 | Karpaty | Rukh Lviv U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Karpaty U19 | Karpaty | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Karpaty U17 | Karpaty U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.