
Christian Kabasele
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Christian Kabasele's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 80.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €319k vs market €750k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2256 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1442
- Opponent strength
- 1521
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €300k – €676k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -69% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2256 | 66% | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1521 | 1442 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 16 | 1163 | 34% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1530 | 1389 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 13 | 861 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1464 | 1420 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Watford FC | Premier League | CB | 16 | 1190 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1570 | 1329 | 1.17 |
| 2019/20 | Watford FC | Premier League | CB | 27 | 2252 | 66% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1615 | 1433 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Watford FC | Premier League | CB | 21 | 1587 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1597 | 1492 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Watford FC | Premier League | CB | 28 | 2332 | 68% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1539 | 1436 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Watford FC | Premier League | CB | 16 | 767 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.14 | 1512 | 1403 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1332 | 1400 | 0.57 |
| 2014/15 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 28 | 2488 | 92% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 1319 | 1374 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Udinese Calcio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Pekarík Bundesliga · 2021 | 35 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Daniele Gastaldello Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Alex Serie A · 2016 | 34 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Cesare Bovo Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €900k | €100k | fell |
| Ricardo Costa Laliga · 2016 | 35 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Antonio Barragán Laliga · 2021 | 34 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Felipe Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Jonas Olsson Premier League · 2016 | 33 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2023 | Watford | Udinese | €6.5M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Genk | Watford | €7.0M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | KAS Eupen | Genk | Free / loan | €250k |
| 16 Aug 2012 | Ludogorets | KAS Eupen | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Aug 2011 | KAS Eupen | Ludogorets | Unknown | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2011 | KV Mechelen | KAS Eupen | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jan 2011 | KAS Eupen | KV Mechelen | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | KAS Eupen U19 | KAS Eupen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | AS Eupen U17 | KAS Eupen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.