Christian Kabasele

35 yrs · Centre-back · Belgium
Udinese Calcio · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€750k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€239k – €739k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€486k – €1.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€300k – €676k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€253k – €1.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€239k – €739k
Model value (performance-implied)€486k – €1.7M
Projected value (24 months)€300k – €676k
Dashed line: current market value (€750k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Christian Kabasele's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh80.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €319k vs market €750k
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €9.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2256 (66% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.14
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
80 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1442
Opponent strength
1521
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€300k – €676k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 32 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -69% to -36%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Udinese CalcioSerie ACB30225666%300.120.14152114420.93
2024/25Udinese CalcioSerie ACB16116334%200.150.16153013890.99
2023/24Udinese CalcioSerie ACB1386125%110.210.16146414200.98
2021/22Watford FCPremier LeagueCB16119035%000.000.04157013291.17
2019/20Watford FCPremier LeagueCB27225266%020.080.10161514331.14
2018/19Watford FCPremier LeagueCB21158746%000.000.03159714921.22
2017/18Watford FCPremier LeagueCB28233268%200.080.09153914361.15
2016/17Watford FCPremier LeagueCB1676722%200.230.14151214031.07
2015/16KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueCB302700100%400.130.10133214000.57
2014/15KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueCB28248892%210.110.07131913740.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupUdinese Calcio16500—
2024/25Italy CupUdinese Calcio29800—
2023/24Italy CupUdinese Calcio19000—
2019/20Fa CupWatford FC112000—
2018/19Fa CupWatford FC19000—
2017/18Fa CupWatford FC218000—
2016/17Fa CupWatford FC19010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Peter Pekarík
Bundesliga · 2021
35€800k€500kfell
Daniele Gastaldello
Serie A · 2016
33€1.0M€300kfell
Alex
Serie A · 2016
34€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Cesare Bovo
Serie A · 2016
33€900k€100kfell
Ricardo Costa
Laliga · 2016
35€800k€250kfell
Antonio Barragán
Laliga · 2021
34€800k€600kfell
Felipe
Serie A · 2016
32€800k€500kfell
Jonas Olsson
Premier League · 2016
33€1.5M€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Jul 2023WatfordUdinese€6.5M€1.0M
1 Jul 2016GenkWatford€7.0M€6.0M
1 Jul 2014KAS EupenGenkFree / loan€250k
16 Aug 2012LudogoretsKAS EupenUnknown€300k
1 Aug 2011KAS EupenLudogoretsUnknown€200k
30 Jun 2011KV MechelenKAS EupenFree / loan€200k
1 Jan 2011KAS EupenKV MechelenFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2008KAS Eupen U19KAS EupenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007AS Eupen U17KAS Eupen U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.