Ivo Pinto

36 yrs · Right-back (also CB) · Portugal
Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€250k
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€58k – €207k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€95k – €375k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€131k – €242k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€112k – €317k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€58k – €207k
Model value (performance-implied)€95k – €375k
Projected value (24 months)€131k – €242k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Ivo Pinto's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage35.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable36.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €77k vs market €250k
Expected appreciationLow-18% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2048 (67% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.22
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.23
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
35 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1175
Opponent strength
1311
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€131k – €242k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; relative output up 53% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -50% to -19%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (DEF)
Relative output kept
65%–166%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
78%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieRB28204867%050.220.23131111750.43
2024/25Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieRB31251582%030.110.14130612110.50
2023/24Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieRB32281292%040.130.17137011900.48
2022/23Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieRB29230975%040.160.17135212190.58
2021/22Fortuna Sittardia CombinatieEredivisieCB22149549%000.000.03138812490.60
2020/21Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalRB26229375%000.000.04136113200.61
2019/20FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalRB1599432%010.090.11135713280.59
2015/16Norwich CityPremier LeagueRB1081124%000.000.10158613551.08

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie217000—
2024/25Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie214400—
2023/24Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie439001—
2022/23Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie19000—
2021/22Knvb BekerFortuna Sittardia Combinatie218000—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingRio Ave FC3289001475
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingGNK Dinamo Zagreb2140001338
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingGNK Dinamo Zagreb5394001340
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueGNK Dinamo Zagreb3270001753

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Lasse Fosgaard
Superliga · 2021
35€150k€150kflat
Christos Lisgaras
Super League 1 · 2020
34€200k€100kfell
Markus Halsti
Superliga · 2020
36€200k€100kfell
Karim Belhocine
Jupiler Pro League · 2014
36€150k€150kflat
Maksym Kovalyov
Premier Liga · 2023
34€200k€100kfell
Giannis Ioannou
Super League 1 · 2018
34€200k€100kfell
Berkan Emir
Super Lig · 2022
34€300k€50kfell
Alexios Michail
Super League 1 · 2021
35€200k€150kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2022Dinamo ZagrebFortuna SittardFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2022Fortuna SittardDinamo ZagrebFree / loan€500k
26 Aug 2021Dinamo ZagrebFortuna SittardFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2021Rio AveDinamo ZagrebFree / loan€1.0M
29 Aug 2020Dinamo ZagrebRio AveFree / loan€1.5M
2 Aug 2020FamalicãoDinamo ZagrebFree / loan€1.2M
7 Jan 2020Dinamo ZagrebFamalicãoFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2019NorwichDinamo ZagrebFree / loan€2.0M
8 Jan 2016Dinamo ZagrebNorwich€3.7M€4.0M
9 Jul 2013Rio AveDinamo Zagreb€1.0M€2.5M
30 Jun 2013CFR ClujRio AveFree / loan€2.5M
4 Jul 2012Rio AveCFR ClujFree / loan€1.1M
30 Jun 2012LeiriaRio AveFree / loan€1.1M
31 Aug 2011Rio AveLeiriaFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2011PortoRio AveFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2011SC CovilhãPortoFree / loan€400k
14 Sept 2010PortoSC CovilhãFree / loan€100k
30 Jun 2010Vitória SetúbalPortoFree / loan€100k
24 Sept 2009PortoVitória SetúbalFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2009FC Porto U19PortoUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Boavista Y19FC Porto U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Boavista U17Boavista Y19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2003Boavista CJBoavista U15UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2003Boavista U15Boavista U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.