
Ivo Pinto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivo Pinto's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 35.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €77k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2048 (67% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 35 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1175
- Opponent strength
- 1311
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €131k – €242k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; relative output up 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -50% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RB | 28 | 2048 | 67% | 0 | 5 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 1311 | 1175 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RB | 31 | 2515 | 82% | 0 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1306 | 1211 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RB | 32 | 2812 | 92% | 0 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1370 | 1190 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | RB | 29 | 2309 | 75% | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 1352 | 1219 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | Eredivisie | CB | 22 | 1495 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1388 | 1249 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | RB | 26 | 2293 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1361 | 1320 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | FC Famalicão | Liga Portugal | RB | 15 | 994 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1357 | 1328 | 0.59 |
| 2015/16 | Norwich City | Premier League | RB | 10 | 811 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1586 | 1355 | 1.08 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Fortuna Sittardia Combinatie | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Rio Ave FC | 3 | 289 | 0 | 0 | 1475 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 140 | 0 | 0 | 1338 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 5 | 394 | 0 | 0 | 1340 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | GNK Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1753 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lasse Fosgaard Superliga · 2021 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Christos Lisgaras Super League 1 · 2020 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Markus Halsti Superliga · 2020 | 36 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Karim Belhocine Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 36 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Maksym Kovalyov Premier Liga · 2023 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Giannis Ioannou Super League 1 · 2018 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Berkan Emir Super Lig · 2022 | 34 | €300k | €50k | fell |
| Alexios Michail Super League 1 · 2021 | 35 | €200k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Dinamo Zagreb | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Fortuna Sittard | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €500k |
| 26 Aug 2021 | Dinamo Zagreb | Fortuna Sittard | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Rio Ave | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 29 Aug 2020 | Dinamo Zagreb | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Aug 2020 | Famalicão | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 7 Jan 2020 | Dinamo Zagreb | Famalicão | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Norwich | Dinamo Zagreb | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 8 Jan 2016 | Dinamo Zagreb | Norwich | €3.7M | €4.0M |
| 9 Jul 2013 | Rio Ave | Dinamo Zagreb | €1.0M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | CFR Cluj | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 4 Jul 2012 | Rio Ave | CFR Cluj | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Leiria | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 31 Aug 2011 | Rio Ave | Leiria | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Porto | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2011 | SC Covilhã | Porto | Free / loan | €400k |
| 14 Sept 2010 | Porto | SC Covilhã | Free / loan | €100k |
| 30 Jun 2010 | Vitória Setúbal | Porto | Free / loan | €100k |
| 24 Sept 2009 | Porto | Vitória Setúbal | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | FC Porto U19 | Porto | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Boavista Y19 | FC Porto U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Boavista U17 | Boavista Y19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2003 | Boavista CJ | Boavista U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2003 | Boavista U15 | Boavista U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.