Iván Balliu

34 yrs · Right-back · Albania
Rayo Vallecano · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 172 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€1.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€259k – €822k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€397k – €1.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€312k – €938k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€425k – €1.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€259k – €822k
Model value (performance-implied)€397k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€312k – €938k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Iván Balliu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average55.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €346k vs market €1.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
578 (17% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
56 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1518
Opponent strength
1461
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€312k – €938k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength up (+78 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -61% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 578 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Rayo VallecanoLaligaRB1457817%000.000.09146115180.95
2024/25Rayo VallecanoLaligaRB25119035%000.000.08149914400.95
2023/24Rayo VallecanoLaligaRB33287684%010.030.08148314011.00
2022/23Rayo VallecanoLaligaRB37323895%000.000.04151213980.98
2021/22Rayo VallecanoLaligaRB35314892%120.090.13154313891.05
2017/18FC MetzLigue 1RB25195257%010.050.09146412780.85
2016/17FC MetzLigue 1RB27233168%050.190.23141613360.88
2014/15FC AroucaLiga PortugalRB32283693%010.030.07140112550.68
2013/14FC AroucaLiga PortugalRB26229685%010.040.09145513180.74

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano325001—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingRayo Vallecano2169001286
2024/25Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano433300—
2021/22Copa Del ReyRayo Vallecano538601—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Víctor Ruiz
Laliga · 2023
34€1.2M€1.0Mflat
Brede Hangeland
Premier League · 2016
35€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Roberto Hilbert
Bundesliga · 2017
33€750k€100kfell
Coke
Laliga · 2021
34€800k€400kfell
Abdoulay Konko
Serie A · 2017
33€500k€500kflat
Xabi Etxeita
Laliga · 2021
34€800k€300kfell
Kolo Touré
Premier League · 2015
34€2.0M€1.8Mflat
Juanpe
Laliga · 2024
33€1.0M€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
14 Jul 2021UD AlmeríaRayo VallecanoFree / loan€1.0M
12 Aug 2019FC MetzUD AlmeríaFree / loan€1.0M
17 Jul 2015AroucaFC MetzFree / loan€1.5M
21 Jul 2013Barcelona BAroucaFree / loan€800k
1 Jul 2011Barça U19Barcelona BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Barça U18Barça U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Barça YouthBarça U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Girona FC YouthBarça YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.