
Iván Balliu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Iván Balliu's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 55.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €346k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 578 (17% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1461
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €312k – €938k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength up (+78 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -61% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 578 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 14 | 578 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1461 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 25 | 1190 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1499 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 33 | 2876 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 1483 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 37 | 3238 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1512 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | RB | 35 | 3148 | 92% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 1543 | 1389 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RB | 25 | 1952 | 57% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1464 | 1278 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | RB | 27 | 2331 | 68% | 0 | 5 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 1416 | 1336 | 0.88 |
| 2014/15 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | RB | 32 | 2836 | 93% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 1401 | 1255 | 0.68 |
| 2013/14 | FC Arouca | Liga Portugal | RB | 26 | 2296 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1455 | 1318 | 0.74 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 250 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 333 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 386 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Víctor Ruiz Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.2M | €1.0M | flat |
| Brede Hangeland Premier League · 2016 | 35 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Roberto Hilbert Bundesliga · 2017 | 33 | €750k | €100k | fell |
| Coke Laliga · 2021 | 34 | €800k | €400k | fell |
| Abdoulay Konko Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Xabi Etxeita Laliga · 2021 | 34 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Kolo Touré Premier League · 2015 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Juanpe Laliga · 2024 | 33 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul 2021 | UD Almería | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 12 Aug 2019 | FC Metz | UD Almería | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 17 Jul 2015 | Arouca | FC Metz | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 21 Jul 2013 | Barcelona B | Arouca | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Barça U18 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Barça Youth | Barça U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Girona FC Youth | Barça Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.