Scott Bain

34 yrs · Goalkeeper · Scotland
Falkirk FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 183 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2028
Market value
€100k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€25k – €147k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€127k – €389k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€55k – €101k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€20k – €363k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€25k – €147k
Model value (performance-implied)€127k – €389k
Projected value (24 months)€55k – €101k
Dashed line: current market value (€100k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Scott Bain's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average25.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.6 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €90k vs market €100k
Expected appreciationNeutral-7% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2864 (96% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
25 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1181
Opponent strength
1216
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€55k – €101k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -76% to -46%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
38 (all positions)
Relative output kept
78%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
74%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Falkirk FCScottish PremiershipGK32286496%000.000.00121611810.31
2023/24Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK21505%000.000.00120815110.34
2021/22Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK21806%000.000.00124215750.50
2020/21Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK15135045%000.000.00128415340.54
2019/20Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK21807%000.000.00123016080.52
2018/19Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK15135045%000.000.00126615250.44
2017/18Dundee FCScottish PremiershipGK12108036%000.000.00129211600.47
2017/18Celtic FCScottish PremiershipGK436012%000.000.00125115700.47
2016/17Dundee FCScottish PremiershipGK36324095%000.000.00129411750.48
2015/16Dundee FCScottish PremiershipGK37329196%000.000.00126512410.44
2014/15Dundee FCScottish PremiershipGK22198058%000.000.00132411820.41

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupFalkirk FC445000—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC1120001444
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueCeltic FC190001599
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueCeltic FC3270001518
2020/21Scottish Fa CupCeltic FC218000—
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingCeltic FC5450001381
2019/20Scottish Fa CupCeltic FC218000—
2018/19Scottish Fa CupCeltic FC545000—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueCeltic FC2180001620
2016/17Scottish Fa CupDundee FC19000—
2015/16Scottish Fa CupDundee FC436000—
2014/15Scottish Fa CupDundee FC218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Thomas Mikkelsen
Superliga · 2020
37€100k€50kfell
Trevor Carson
Scottish Premiership · 2024
36€150k€25kfell
Bogdan Kogut
Premier Liga · 2023
36€300k€75kfell
Davino Verhulst
Super League 1 · 2021
34€250k€50kfell
David Marshall
Scottish Premiership · 2023
38€200k€50kfell
Jesper Rask
Superliga · 2020
32€300k€300kflat
Florin Niță
Super Lig · 2024
37€225k€100kfell
Radoslaw Cierzniak
Scottish Premiership · 2015
32€300k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025CelticFalkirkFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2018Dundee FCCelticFree / loan€350k
21 May 2018CelticDundee FCFree / loan€350k
31 Jan 2018Dundee FCCelticFree / loan€400k
30 Jan 2018Hibernian FCDundee FCFree / loan€400k
1 Jan 2018Dundee FCHibernian FCFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2014Alloa AthleticDundee FCFree / loan€175k
1 Jul 2011Aberdeen FC U20Alloa AthleticFree / loanData unavailable
1 Nov 2010Elgin CityAberdeen FC U20Free / loanData unavailable
1 Aug 2010Aberdeen FC U20Elgin CityFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.