
Scott Bain
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Scott Bain's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 25.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €90k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2864 (96% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 25 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1181
- Opponent strength
- 1216
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €55k – €101k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -76% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 38 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 74%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Falkirk FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 32 | 2864 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1216 | 1181 | 0.31 |
| 2023/24 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 2 | 150 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1208 | 1511 | 0.34 |
| 2021/22 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1242 | 1575 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 15 | 1350 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1284 | 1534 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 2 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1230 | 1608 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 15 | 1350 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1266 | 1525 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 12 | 1080 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1292 | 1160 | 0.47 |
| 2017/18 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 4 | 360 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1251 | 1570 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1294 | 1175 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 37 | 3291 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1265 | 1241 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 22 | 1980 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1324 | 1182 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Falkirk FC | 4 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1444 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1518 |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2016/17 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Mikkelsen Superliga · 2020 | 37 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Trevor Carson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 36 | €150k | €25k | fell |
| Bogdan Kogut Premier Liga · 2023 | 36 | €300k | €75k | fell |
| Davino Verhulst Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €250k | €50k | fell |
| David Marshall Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 38 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Jesper Rask Superliga · 2020 | 32 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Florin Niță Super Lig · 2024 | 37 | €225k | €100k | fell |
| Radoslaw Cierzniak Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 32 | €300k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Celtic | Falkirk | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Dundee FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €350k |
| 21 May 2018 | Celtic | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Jan 2018 | Dundee FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jan 2018 | Hibernian FC | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Dundee FC | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Alloa Athletic | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €175k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Aberdeen FC U20 | Alloa Athletic | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Nov 2010 | Elgin City | Aberdeen FC U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2010 | Aberdeen FC U20 | Elgin City | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.