Ivan Nesterenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Nesterenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (1046 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 99
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 1.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €113k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1046 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.37
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1070
- Opponent strength
- 1193
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €164k – €422k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; role change LM -> AM; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -26% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1046 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Obolon Kyiv | Premier Liga | AM | 21 | 1046 | 39% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.37 | 1193 | 1070 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | LM | 21 | 904 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 1231 | 1088 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | AM | 26 | 1264 | 47% | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 1283 | 1157 | 0.34 |
| 2020/21 | Vorskla Poltava | Premier Liga | AM | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1305 | 1291 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Obolon Kyiv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Vorskla Poltava | 1 | 47 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Vorskla Poltava | 3 | 201 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vorskla Poltava | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reid Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Sergiy Kosovskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Yuriy Kozyrenko Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Vitaliy Boyko Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €350k | €400k | flat |
| Stephen Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €550k | €550k | flat |
| Cammy MacPherson Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Scott Allardice Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Oleksandr Belyaev Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €300k | €400k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Obolon | Vorskla Poltava | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jul 2025 | Vorskla Poltava | Obolon | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Vorskla U19 | Vorskla Poltava | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Vorskla II | Vorskla U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Feb 2021 | MFC Metalurg-2 | Vorskla II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Metalurg U17 | MFC Metalurg-2 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2018 | Shakhtar U17 | Metalurg U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.