Rasmus Falk

34 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM, LW, RW) · Denmark
Odense Boldklub · Superliga · Foot: right · Height: 177 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€250k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€63k – €283k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€196k – €413k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€126k – €239k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€87k – €349k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€63k – €283k
Model value (performance-implied)€196k – €413k
Projected value (24 months)€126k – €239k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Rasmus Falk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.93x the positional average in the league (1702 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average16.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €141k vs market €250k
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.47
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1702 (86% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.16
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.20
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
17 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.47 (rank 12)
Team strength (Elo)
1215
Opponent strength
1279
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€126k – €239k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 63 pts; changed club; team strength down (-185 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); role change DM -> CM; relative output up 37% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -50% to -31%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1702 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
23 (MID)
Relative output kept
68%–122%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
65%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Odense BoldklubSuperligaCM19170286%030.160.20127912150.47
2024/25FC CopenhagenSuperligaDM845323%010.200.09125113990.38
2023/24FC CopenhagenSuperligaDM22174488%340.360.17128315170.48
2021/22FC CopenhagenSuperligaCM1294548%030.290.18125715160.45
2020/21FC CopenhagenSuperligaCM20167084%430.380.20127614090.43
2019/20FC CopenhagenSuperligaCM22174575%100.050.07124714740.41
2018/19FC CopenhagenSuperligaCM24196184%340.320.18128514990.44
2017/18FC CopenhagenSuperligaRW20135958%230.330.24126814530.47
2016/17FC CopenhagenSuperligaRW22144462%550.620.30130015950.48
2015/16Odense BoldklubSuperligaLW31264789%6120.610.61129713060.53
2013/14Odense BoldklubSuperligaRW29238980%640.380.59134813140.63
2012/13Odense BoldklubSuperligaCM19160054%240.340.32133112640.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Oddset PokalenOdense Boldklub435000—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Copenhagen6466101303
2024/25Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen24000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueFC Copenhagen7630011709
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Copenhagen6554101462
2023/24Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen424201—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Copenhagen6428111345
2020/21Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen216201—
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Copenhagen2143001357
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFC Copenhagen11877121563
2019/20Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen217401—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Copenhagen2158001265
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Copenhagen295001418
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Copenhagen6411011406
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFC Copenhagen6315011461
2018/19Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen28801—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueFC Copenhagen7310001514
2017/18Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen18600—
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Copenhagen6376221346
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueFC Copenhagen6319001542
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueFC Copenhagen3250111561
2016/17Oddset PokalenFC Copenhagen15610—
2015/16Oddset PokalenOdense Boldklub218001—
2013/14Oddset PokalenOdense Boldklub218011—
2012/13Oddset PokalenOdense Boldklub324020—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Marvin Bartley
Scottish Premiership · 2020
34€300k€100kfell
Peter Nymann
Superliga · 2019
37€150k€100kfell
Leroy Fer
Super Lig · 2023
33€400k€200kfell
Lasse Kryger
Superliga · 2017
35€150k€150kflat
Lasse Schöne
Eredivisie · 2022
36€300k€175kfell
Jorge Díaz
Super League 1 · 2023
34€200k€150kfell
Steve De Ridder
Jupiler Pro League · 2021
34€200k€100kfell
Jonas Kamper
Superliga · 2016
33€350k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Jul 2025CopenhagenOdense BKFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2016Odense BKCopenhagenFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2010Odense BK U19Odense BKUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Odense BK YouthOdense BK U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Middelfart G&BK U19Odense BK YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.