Zé Carlos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zé Carlos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.71x the positional average in the league (1198 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 69
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €666k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1198 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €493k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+84 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -56% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1198 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 30 | 1198 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1333 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Farense | Liga Portugal | CM | 9 | 674 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1410 | 1184 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | CM | 7 | 118 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1293 | 1412 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RB | 23 | 405 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1352 | 1397 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Vitória Guimarães SC | Liga Portugal | RM | 15 | 855 | 28% | 0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 1437 | 1387 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 4 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1388 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Vitória Guimarães SC | 2 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1233 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Mårtensson Eredivisie · 2014 | 25 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Sergiy Politylo Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Arnaud Djoum Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Daleho Irandust Eredivisie · 2022 | 24 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Guga Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €700k | €3.0M | rose |
| Joachim Van Damme Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 24 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Kamal Issah Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €650k | €200k | fell |
| Gor Malakyan Premier Liga · 2017 | 23 | €500k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2025 | Vit. Guimarães | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Farense | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2025 | Vit. Guimarães | Farense | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Varzim | Vit. Guimarães | €400k | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Vit. Guimarães | Varzim | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 25 Aug 2022 | Varzim | Vit. Guimarães | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Varzim B | Varzim | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Varzim U19 | Varzim B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Famalicão U19 | Varzim U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Famalicão S17 | Famalicão U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Rio Ave U17 | Famalicão S17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Rio Ave Sub-15 | Rio Ave U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Salgueiros Y | Rio Ave Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.