Mohamed Kaba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mohamed Kaba's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-4.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.13x the positional average in the league (1550 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 45.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1550 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 45 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €4.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -49% to +5%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1550 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | CM | 12 | 925 | 30% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 1464 | 1304 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | US Lecce | Serie A | CM | 15 | 625 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 1513 | 1352 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | CM | 15 | 441 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1570 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | CM | 23 | 1383 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1499 | 1359 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 53 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Regattin Ligue 1 · 2015 | 24 | €2.0M | €2.8M | rose |
| Sadio Diallo Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €2.0M | €250k | fell |
| Gilles Sunu Ligue 1 · 2015 | 24 | €1.3M | €1.5M | rose |
| Bartol Franjic Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.4M | fell |
| Omar El Kaddouri Serie A · 2017 | 27 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Luca Rizzo Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Raman Chibsah Serie A · 2016 | 23 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Caetano Liga Portugal · 2014 | 23 | €2.0M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | FC Nantes | Lecce | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 29 Jan 2026 | Lecce | FC Nantes | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 14 Aug 2023 | Valenciennes FC | Lecce | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Valenciennes B | Valenciennes FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.