Mario Engels
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mario Engels's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.21x the positional average in the league (998 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 10th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €96k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 998 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.27
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 10 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1060
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €118k – €273k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 38 pts; team strength down (-147 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -53% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 998 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | LW | 24 | 998 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 1307 | 1060 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | LW | 31 | 2176 | 71% | 4 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.53 | 1314 | 1207 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Heracles Almelo | Eredivisie | RW | 34 | 1591 | 52% | 5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 1347 | 1149 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 9 | 46 | 2% | 1 | 1 | 3.91 | 0.83 | 1388 | 1394 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 29 | 1090 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.41 | 1362 | 1295 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 27 | 1436 | 47% | 3 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 1361 | 1320 | 0.56 |
| 2017/18 | Roda JC Kerkrade | Eredivisie | LW | 21 | 995 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 1339 | 1221 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 3 | 254 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 4 | 297 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Heracles Almelo | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 163 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 40 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | SV Sandhausen | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Roda JC Kerkrade | 3 | 120 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Fernández Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Ilya Kukharchuk Premier Liga · 2023 | 33 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Christos Eleftheriadis Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €250k | €175k | fell |
| Nicky Clark Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 33 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Mathieu Dossevi Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Artem Sitalo Premier Liga · 2023 | 34 | €150k | €75k | fell |
| Billy McKay Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 33 | €300k | €325k | flat |
| Craig Curran Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 30 | €325k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2023 | Tokyo Verdy | Heracles Almelo | Free / loan | €400k |
| 9 Jan 2023 | Sparta R. | Tokyo Verdy | Free / loan | €450k |
| 4 Oct 2020 | SV Sandhausen | Sparta R. | €100k | €475k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Roda JC | SV Sandhausen | Free / loan | €600k |
| 2 Jul 2017 | Slask Wroclaw | Roda JC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 19 Aug 2016 | FSV Frankfurt | Slask Wroclaw | Free / loan | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | 1.FC Köln II | FSV Frankfurt | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | 1.FC Köln U19 | 1.FC Köln II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | 1.FC Köln U17 | 1.FC Köln U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | 1.FC Köln Yth. | 1.FC Köln U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Allner-Bö. Yth. | 1.FC Köln Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.