Kike García
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kike García's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.98x the positional average in the league (1727 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 74.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €302k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1727 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.47
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.50
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1399
- Opponent strength
- 1462
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €263k – €651k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 24 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -60% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1727 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | Laliga | ST | 37 | 1727 | 50% | 8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 1462 | 1399 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2555 | 75% | 13 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.58 | 1514 | 1418 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | ST | 33 | 1420 | 42% | 3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.55 | 1482 | 1431 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | ST | 35 | 997 | 29% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.43 | 1555 | 1455 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | CA Osasuna | Laliga | ST | 33 | 1859 | 54% | 5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.46 | 1542 | 1446 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | SD Eibar | Laliga | ST | 37 | 3104 | 91% | 12 | 2 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 1564 | 1415 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | SD Eibar | Laliga | ST | 27 | 1774 | 52% | 5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 1520 | 1506 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | SD Eibar | Laliga | ST | 30 | 1293 | 38% | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 1531 | 1531 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | SD Eibar | Laliga | ST | 35 | 2465 | 72% | 8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.42 | 1558 | 1520 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | SD Eibar | Laliga | ST | 24 | 1538 | 45% | 7 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 1561 | 1507 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | RCD Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 151 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 65 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 8 | 485 | 5 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | CA Osasuna | 3 | 132 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 3 | 97 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Middlesbrough FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaël Danic Ligue 1 · 2017 | 36 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Kévin Gameiro Ligue 1 · 2024 | 37 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Gökdeniz Karadeniz Premier Liga · 2016 | 36 | €500k | €50k | fell |
| Massimo Maccarone Serie A · 2017 | 38 | €400k | €275k | fell |
| Francesco Caputo Serie A · 2024 | 37 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Simon Terodde Bundesliga · 2023 | 35 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Fabio Quagliarella Serie A · 2021 | 38 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Álvaro Negredo Laliga · 2022 | 37 | €1.5M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Alavés | Espanyol | Free / loan | €900k |
| 13 Aug 2023 | CA Osasuna | Alavés | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | SD Eibar | CA Osasuna | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 3 Feb 2016 | Middlesbrough | SD Eibar | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 15 Jul 2014 | Real Murcia | Middlesbrough | €2.3M | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Murcia Imperial | Real Murcia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Murcia U19 | Murcia Imperial | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Quintanar Rey | Murcia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.