Stephan El Shaarawy

33 yrs · Left winger (also SS) · Italy
Associazione Sportiva Roma · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€2.4M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€818k – €2.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.4M – €6.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€724k – €1.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.6M – €5.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€818k – €2.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.4M – €6.2M
Projected value (24 months)€724k – €1.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.4M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Stephan El Shaarawy's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-6.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (657 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh81.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.7 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.8M vs market €2.4M
Expected appreciationVery low-56% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
657 (19% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.55
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.44
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1638
Opponent strength
1488
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€724k – €1.8M

Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> SS.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -74% (IQR -85% to -67%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 657 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ASS2065719%130.550.44148816380.93
2024/25Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW31108932%350.660.43144516680.99
2023/24Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW33174051%340.360.33149616180.98
2022/23Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW29152044%730.590.36141615780.94
2021/22Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW27104831%300.260.26143615890.89
2020/21Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW1057217%110.310.25145815910.90
2018/19Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW28210862%1150.680.44142415950.78
2017/18Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW33216463%750.500.32145017120.86
2016/17Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW32162347%850.720.34145617110.88
2015/16Associazione Sportiva RomaSerie ALW16120035%820.750.44147116650.95
2015/16AS MonacoLigue 1LW1567820%000.000.20143215220.78
2014/15AC MilanSerie ALW18119735%330.450.38147215130.93
2013/14AC MilanSerie ALW62136%000.000.22139215600.88
2012/13AC MilanSerie ALW37283683%1650.670.46140016220.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma7318101487
2025/26Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma19000—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma9375011558
2024/25Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma11000—
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma13951051619
2023/24Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma210400—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma11521211559
2022/23Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma215200—
2021/22Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma11300—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingAssociazione Sportiva Roma111101382
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma4121111568
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma4264011710
2018/19Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma17701—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma10359211645
2017/18Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma19001—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma8462211546
2016/17Italy CupAssociazione Sportiva Roma424123—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueAS Monaco6399211525
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueAssociazione Sportiva Roma2137001878
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingAS Monaco334101563
2014/15Italy CupAC Milan19000—
2013/14Uefa Champions League QualifyingAC Milan2164101554
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan123001549
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan8550221649
2012/13Italy CupAC Milan112010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Johan Elmander
Super Lig · 2013
32€4.5M€1.0Mfell
Aleksandr Kerzhakov
Premier Liga · 2015
33€2.8M€200kfell
Luuk de Jong
Laliga · 2022
32€4.0M€3.5Mflat
Felipe Caicedo
Serie A · 2021
33€4.0M€600kfell
Alessandro Matri
Serie A · 2016
32€3.5M€500kfell
Carlos Bacca
Laliga · 2021
35€1.8M€600kfell
Didier Drogba
Super Lig · 2013
35€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Josip Ilicic
Serie A · 2022
34€1.0M€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026RomaWithout ClubUnknown€2.4M
30 Jan 2021SH ShenhuaRomaFree / loan€8.0M
8 Jul 2019RomaSH Shenhua€16.0M€30.0M
1 Jul 2016AC MilanRoma€13.0M€17.0M
30 Jun 2016RomaAC MilanFree / loan€17.0M
26 Jan 2016AC MilanRomaFree / loan€14.0M
25 Jan 2016MonacoAC MilanFree / loan€14.0M
13 Jul 2015AC MilanMonacoFree / loan€14.0M
1 Jul 2011GenoaAC Milan€20.3M€7.0M
30 Jun 2011PadovaGenoaFree / loan€7.0M
1 Jul 2010GenoaPadovaFree / loan€600k
1 Dec 2008Genoa U19GenoaUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.