
Bogdan Butko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bogdan Butko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 12.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €53k vs market €50k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 690 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 13 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1068
- Opponent strength
- 1212
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €28k – €105k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 53 pts; changed club; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 690 league minutes last season.
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Oleksandriya | Premier Liga | RB | 11 | 690 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1212 | 1068 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Chornomorets Odesa | Premier Liga | RB | 25 | 2111 | 78% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 1205 | 1055 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RB | 14 | 1260 | 47% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1275 | 1235 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Zorya Lugansk | Premier Liga | RB | 25 | 2219 | 82% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 1278 | 1406 | 0.38 |
| 2020/21 | Erzurumspor FK | Super Lig | RB | 10 | 707 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1336 | 1164 | 0.37 |
| 2018/19 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 10 | 819 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1319 | 1625 | 0.57 |
| 2017/18 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 12 | 993 | 50% | 0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.10 | 1277 | 1676 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | RB | 11 | 887 | 31% | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 1359 | 1636 | 0.56 |
| 2015/16 | Amkar Perm | Premier Liga | RB | 26 | 2260 | 84% | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1475 | 1350 | 0.79 |
| 2014/15 | Amkar Perm | Premier Liga | RB | 12 | 1035 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1490 | 1402 | 0.88 |
| 2014/15 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | RB | 8 | 720 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1379 | 1184 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | RB | 25 | 2200 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1406 | 1339 | 0.63 |
| 2012/13 | FK Mariupol | Premier Liga | RB | 29 | 2561 | 95% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1394 | 1372 | 0.70 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Lech Poznan | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1558 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 630 | 0 | 1 | 1677 |
| 2017/18 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | 1464 |
| 2016/17 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Russian Cup | Amkar Perm | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2014/15 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Ukrainian Cup | FK Mariupol | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Lisgaras Super League 1 · 2022 | 36 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Miguel Lopes Super Lig · 2021 | 35 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Giannis Skondras Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €150k | €75k | fell |
| Maksym Kovalyov Premier Liga · 2024 | 35 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Vanderson Super League 1 · 2021 | 37 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Zakarya Bergdich Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €125k | €25k | fell |
| Anestis Anastasiadis Super League 1 · 2019 | 36 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Alan Maybury Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 36 | €150k | €75k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jan 2026 | Without Club | FC Oleksandriya | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Chornomorets | Without Club | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Zorya Lugansk | Chornomorets | Free / loan | €200k |
| 6 Sept 2022 | Without Club | Zorya Lugansk | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Shakhtar D. | Without Club | Unknown | €675k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | BB Erzurumspor | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €675k |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Shakhtar D. | BB Erzurumspor | Free / loan | €900k |
| 4 Jan 2021 | Lech Poznan | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 3 Oct 2020 | Shakhtar D. | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Lech Poznan | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 17 Feb 2020 | Shakhtar D. | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Amkar Perm | Shakhtar D. | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 23 Feb 2015 | Shakhtar D. | Amkar Perm | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jan 2015 | Shakhtar II | Shakhtar D. | Unknown | €1.2M |
| 31 Dec 2014 | Illichivets | Shakhtar II | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Shakhtar II | Illichivets | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Volyn Lutsk | Shakhtar II | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Shakhtar II | Volyn Lutsk | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.