Bogdan Butko

35 yrs · Right-back · Ukraine
FC Oleksandriya · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 182 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€50k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€10k – €98k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€76k – €208k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€28k – €105k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€21k – €198k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€10k – €98k
Model value (performance-implied)€76k – €208k
Projected value (24 months)€28k – €105k
Dashed line: current market value (€50k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Bogdan Butko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceBelow average12.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.5 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €53k vs market €50k
Expected appreciationHigh+12% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
690 (26% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
13 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1068
Opponent strength
1212
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€28k – €105k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 53 pts; changed club; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -50% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 690 league minutes last season.
  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FC OleksandriyaPremier LigaRB1169026%000.000.11121210680.25
2024/25Chornomorets OdesaPremier LigaRB25211178%120.130.19120510550.28
2023/24Zorya LuganskPremier LigaRB14126047%020.140.14127512350.34
2022/23Zorya LuganskPremier LigaRB25221982%220.160.13127814060.38
2020/21Erzurumspor FKSuper LigRB1070720%000.000.10133611640.37
2018/19FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaRB1081941%000.000.04131916250.57
2017/18FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaRB1299350%030.270.10127716760.62
2016/17FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaRB1188731%120.300.14135916360.56
2015/16Amkar PermPremier LigaRB26226084%040.160.16147513500.79
2014/15Amkar PermPremier LigaRB12103538%100.090.11149014020.88
2014/15FK MariupolPremier LigaRB872031%010.130.15137911840.54
2013/14FK MariupolPremier LigaRB25220084%000.000.03140613390.63
2012/13FK MariupolPremier LigaRB29256195%100.040.05139413720.70

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueLech Poznan3270001558
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk2156001601
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk3136001584
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk7630011677
2017/18Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk221001—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk3270011464
2016/17Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk218000—
2015/16Russian CupAmkar Perm327002—
2014/15Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol19000—
2013/14Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol19000—
2012/13Ukrainian CupFK Mariupol218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Christos Lisgaras
Super League 1 · 2022
36€100k€100kflat
Miguel Lopes
Super Lig · 2021
35€100k€50kfell
Giannis Skondras
Super League 1 · 2022
32€150k€75kfell
Maksym Kovalyov
Premier Liga · 2024
35€100k€100kflat
Vanderson
Super League 1 · 2021
37€100k€50kfell
Zakarya Bergdich
Super Lig · 2021
32€125k€25kfell
Anestis Anastasiadis
Super League 1 · 2019
36€100k€100kflat
Alan Maybury
Scottish Premiership · 2014
36€150k€75kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
22 Jan 2026Without ClubFC OleksandriyaUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2025ChornomoretsWithout ClubUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2024Zorya LuganskChornomoretsFree / loan€200k
6 Sept 2022Without ClubZorya LuganskUnknown€250k
1 Jul 2021Shakhtar D.Without ClubUnknown€675k
30 Jun 2021BB ErzurumsporShakhtar D.Free / loan€675k
1 Feb 2021Shakhtar D.BB ErzurumsporFree / loan€900k
4 Jan 2021Lech PoznanShakhtar D.Free / loan€1.2M
3 Oct 2020Shakhtar D.Lech PoznanFree / loan€1.2M
31 Jul 2020Lech PoznanShakhtar D.Free / loan€1.2M
17 Feb 2020Shakhtar D.Lech PoznanFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2016Amkar PermShakhtar D.Free / loan€2.0M
23 Feb 2015Shakhtar D.Amkar PermFree / loan€1.2M
1 Jan 2015Shakhtar IIShakhtar D.Unknown€1.2M
31 Dec 2014IllichivetsShakhtar IIFree / loan€1.2M
1 Jul 2011Shakhtar IIIllichivetsFree / loan€1.5M
30 Jun 2011Volyn LutskShakhtar IIFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2010Shakhtar IIVolyn LutskFree / loan€100k
1 Jul 2008Shakhtar U17Shakhtar IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Bogdan Butko · MoneyballAI