Renan Ribeiro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Renan Ribeiro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 36.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €104k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1195
- Opponent strength
- 1328
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €62k – €101k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -27% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 182 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–147%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 73%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CF Estrela Amadora | Liga Portugal | GK | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1328 | 1195 | 0.58 |
| 2019/20 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | GK | 11 | 990 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1342 | 1492 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | GK | 27 | 2299 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1357 | 1634 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | GK | 17 | 1530 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1354 | 1250 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 5 | 394 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2019/20 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1619 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Batista Liga Portugal · 2024 | 38 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Fotis Kipouros Super League 1 · 2013 | 38 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Thomas Mikkelsen Superliga · 2020 | 37 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Rustam Khudzhamov Premier Liga · 2018 | 36 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Jelle ten Rouwelaar Eredivisie · 2015 | 35 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Florin Niță Super Lig · 2024 | 37 | €225k | €100k | fell |
| Denis Liga Portugal · 2021 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Rudy Riou Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 36 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Without Club | Estrela Amadora | Unknown | €50k |
| 7 Feb 2025 | Hartford | Without Club | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Without Club | Hartford | Unknown | €250k |
| 8 Sept 2022 | Al-Ahli | Without Club | Free / loan | €500k |
| 26 Jul 2022 | Sporting | Al-Ahli | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Estoril | Sporting | €1.1M | €2.0M |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Sporting | Estoril | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 2 Aug 2018 | Estoril | Sporting | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2018 | São Paulo | Estoril | Free / loan | €750k |
| 29 May 2013 | Atlético-MG | São Paulo | Free / loan | €750k |
| 17 Jun 2009 | Atlético-MG B | Atlético-MG | Unknown | €200k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.